How Environmentalism Misses the Forest for the Trees

The old mantra “think globally, act locally,” is pretty silly. Local environmentalism is often bad environmentalism, because keeping one’s backyard pristine can make the planet worse off. Preventing wind farms leaves Cape Cod’s views untouched, but increases carbon emissions.

In my own field of housing, a similar phenomenon occurs when some environmental groups put their own local interests ahead of global warming.

亚老师说每个人追求自己的利益，这个社会的财富会更多。看来不尽然。

第一、亚老师的意思，是基于交易的。即，如果某个人想获得利润，他就要生产，然后去交易获得利润。但是，在环保上面，某些地区的人会因为在当地建核电站而使环境受威胁，这些人当然会反对的

第二、除非是基于交易的。也就是说，当地老百姓承受这种威胁，其他地区的人给你补贴，给你提供工作机会；而这种模式才是王道

第三、在中国，因为政府拥有至高无上、不受制约的权力，中国建核电站没看到有抗议的。当然我们的政府权力大，可以做得事情也多，不管好坏。针对建核电站上，还是补贴了当地百姓的。

鸦片

熟悉中国近代史的人都知道东印度公司卖了很多鸦片给中国人，看起来只是一个商业行为，但这个却可以败坏我国国民的心智、体力。

现实中，很多商业活动室卑鄙的，比如说卖毒品，卖淫，虽说是有需要才会有供给，又不是强买强卖，但是那些可以上瘾的商品和强买强卖有什么区别？

Q&A: by Fama/French Forum

Q&A: Thoughts on Mark-to-Market

by Fama/French Forum

1、What do you think of the mark to market issue?

EFF: It gives investors a good estimate of what a financial institution is worth. It has more flexibility than commonly realized, especially for illiquid assets, where best estimates of value can be used.

KRF: There is not enough empirical evidence to be sure who is right about this issue, but we can guess. Those against marking to market argue that the transaction prices for securities sold under duress do not reflect their true value. If you and I both own relatively illiquid assets and you choose to sell yours quickly at a fire sale price, mark to market accounting may force me to write down the value of my assets to your transaction price. Unless I also plan to sell my position quickly, this undervalues my position. The critical question, however, is whether your transaction price is more accurate than the model value I would use if I am not forced to mark to market. My guess—and this is only a guess—is that the observed transaction price is typically more accurate than the model. In other words, marking to market would improve the accuracy of my balance sheet.

Acconomics：mark to market,会在交易双方疯狂的时候失灵。比如说，股市上涨，大家都认为未来会上涨，下跌，都认为未来会下跌。这种预期是错误的，但是交易价格是基于这种预期的！

2、I have a client who is convinced that an inverted yield curve is a signal to get out of equities. What are your thoughts on this topic?

EFF/KRF: Inverted yield curves are often observed at the front end of recessions. But there's no evidence that they predict stock returns, which also tend to predict (decline in advance of) recessions. Your client's implicit premise is that bond market investors predict future economic activity better than stock market investors. The evidence says that both markets are moderately good at predicting future economic activity, and inverted yield curves are not reliable predictors of stock returns.

3、Recently, I've heard some say "I got out of the market in May 2008 and I am sure glad I did." Given the obviously positive results of this decision, what is the best argument to convince people that buy and hold is better than timing the market?

EFF: Wins and losses from market timing bets are both just unpredictable chance outcomes, and good luck is, of course, better than bad luck. The problem with market timing is that you may be out of the market in periods of strong returns.

KRF: There is a large academic literature on whether market returns are predictable. The general conclusion is that it is impossible to predict the market return with any confidence... "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," by Amit Goyal and Ivo Welch (Review of Financial Studies, 2008), is a good summary of the evidence.

Acconomics：buy and hold the SOC\big company if you have no inner information; trade based on inner information if you have

What Are Friends for? A Longer Life

“People with stronger friendship networks feel like there is someone they can turn to,” said Karen A. Roberto, director of the center for gerontology at Virginia Tech. “Friendship is an undervalued resource. The consistent message of these studies is that friends make your life better.”

我的理解是：
一、样本是否具有代表性。那些更健康的人是否会更多的进入样本空间？会。

二、样本数据是否收集错误。

三、控制变量是否可控，非解释变量实在太多，很难控制，即使你使用compare-to-compare试验组合。

美国人为什么不彻底搞掉索马里海盗？

这是两位专家给出的建议：

First, the United States and other states with warships in the area should review their rules of engagement when confronting pirate ships. Warships should have the authority to use lethal force against small speed boats or skiffs with high horsepower engines carrying men armed with AK-47 rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers as well as piracy equipment such as ladders and grappling hooks. If warships come across such boats attempting to hijack a ship, the small boats should not simply be chased off. They should be attacked and sunk.

Second, because the small speed boats and skiffs operate from larger “mother ships,” they are able to attack ships far from the coast. The mother ships are often dhows or fishing vessels which have themselves been hijacked. More steps should be taken by the U.S. Navy and its partners to locate and neutralize these “mother ships.”

Third, the United States should consider imposing a naval blockade on the major ports which are supporting the pirate activities. Only humanitarian aid should be allowed into such ports. This will send a message to the local communities that they will pay a price for supporting the actions of the pirates. If necessary, the international community should not hesitate to attack the pirates in their land bases, which is authorized both by the UN Security Council and the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia.

Fourth, to gain support from the local communities, the United States should push for the U.N. Security Council to order all foreign fishing vessels to stay out of the exclusiveeconomic zone of Somalia. This is important because one reason some local fishingcommunities support the pirates is that they believe foreign fishing vessels have been plundering their fishing resources.

Fifth, the United States and its allies should give aid and assistance to states in the region, such as Kenya, that are willing to prosecute pirates apprehended by foreign warships.

Sixth, the international community should use other relevant international conventions tocombat Somali piracy. These include including the 1988 Convention for the Suppression ofUnlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (SUA Convention) and the 1979 International Convention Against the Taking of Hostages (Hostages Convention).

Seventh, we urge the shipping community to reconsider taking armed marshals on board.

The SUA and Hostages Conventions are potentially useful tools because they are broadly accepted. If alleged offenders are present in the territory of a state party, the state has an obligation to take them into custody and to either extradite them or prosecute them.

In conclusion, we urge President Obama and Secretary Clinton to show decisive leadership in leading the international community to defeat the Somali pirates. They will have both the law and world public opinion on their side. In the 21st century, it is unacceptable for the world’s shipping to be helpless and continue to be preyed upon by the Somali pirates.

 the United States should lead, not act unilaterally

其实还有一条，可以帮助Somalia致富。至于为什么美国不搞掉索马里海盗有几种假设：
一、看美国打的任何战争，根本没有彻底成功过，因为美国的战争不是合并性质的，只是为了做生意，这是不长久的。所以，第一个可能是，美国人自己根本就不自信可以领导全球把索马里海盗给彻底端掉

二、美国人不愿意。为什么？因为它怕失败

三、美国人没有领导能力。因为中国等国大了，翅膀硬了。

四、索马里海盗就是美国人控制的，进而间接控制红海他国商船运输。那索马里海盗为啥子劫美国人的船，是给世界人民演戏吗？

虽说做生意没什么不对，但是不公平竞争确实可恶。国家间的做生意其实就是不公平的。

EU,US,CHINA

当初欧洲人用大炮打开中国的大门，杀了一些人，无非是想和中国人做生意，其实，只要政府不干预，中国人还是很喜欢做生意的，做起生意来和犹太人有得一比。

现在，欧美大可不必因为中国的政体而惧怕中国。

国家间的制衡和做生意是一样的：

我要进货，当然不会和一家进，同时跟几家进货

中国和欧洲、美国、俄罗斯；美国人现在和拉丁美洲和好，不就是要制衡中国吗？不是美国制衡中国，而是拉丁美洲要同时和中国、美国打交道；那非洲为啥子不和欧美打交道制衡中国呢？

现在时和平时代，好好生产，好好做生意，政治上的分歧自然会解决的。

my comments to an essay

actually ,we Chinese can name whatever we what, although our government has undivided power,our country is lead by one party.above all,every country are lead by parties ,no matter how many ,but one thing we all keep in mind:good man doesn’t roll into a party ,there is no good phrase for a party ,party always peruse his own interest.we Chinese don’t like an undivided government,we feel unsafe if there is no an undivided government for us.actually , we want to revenge, the people controlled by undivided power want to control others future,yeah ,that’s a revenge!

my colleges studying in US always tell me you American are in no interest in world but America itself, then about naming thing ,i think you guys do be interested in outside world of US,that’s a relief.
from china ,we want you American go through the crisis, American dreams are excuse of life to many people around the world,if you America outrun by china , first,i’m happy for my country ,second,i’m sorry for human being 
this is to Obama,you are a symbol for American dream.and a great country need a great government, i hope you can make it
this is to American rich man ,especially jews.please help the poor ,we know ,market reward winner ,that’s right,you are the winners ,but if you don’t help poor,you cann’t just split them off US,not like a stressed bank ,which may be divided into bad bank and good bank ;so please help poor ,no matter how. owning huge wealth means you can help others more,that’s the essence of human being,of market economy,you can’t live forever under the circumstance that poor people can’t live ,can’t work;actually ,your money from capital gain are created by the poor people

here is the essay:China: More People, Fewer Names

Feeding the Local Shark

Approximately two dozen such people offered small loans to residents and local proprietors — anywhere from $25 to $5,000. The obvious advantage was that you didn’t need a solid credit history. Desperation and lack of financial services were the only requirements. The disadvantage lay in high interest rates (40 percent was not uncommon), but also in the associated penalties: contrary to popular perception, very few cases of failed payment led to physical harm. Instead, you could be forced to pay in kind — e.g., with a television set — or with food stamps and welfare checks (which also function as collateral).

中国金融监管的想法很单纯，非审批的金融机构会给很多人造成麻烦，引起系统风险，也就是地下钱庄，如果每个人都牵扯地下钱庄，一下出问题，大家都紧张，系统风险就出来了。这种想法有时需要改变了。

Times Co. Reports Loss of $74 Million

The New York Times Company reported a first-quarter loss of $74.5 million on Tuesday, compared with a loss of $335,000 in the period a year ago, as it joined the roster of newspaper companies recording the steepest advertising declines in generations.

纽约时报集团里有太多除了nyt外的媒体，这些媒体的纸质报纸受损，而网上又没有增长。nyt就不一样，明显可以看到，危机来了，nyt网页上的广告多了很多。

或许时报集团应该把非nyt卖掉，应该裁员，应该减工资，节约成本。但是，我们要记住，如果现在卖掉非nyt部门，第一卖不出好价格，第二经济情况好起来的时候又要买回来，因为时报集团的战略目标是全球第一的媒体，第一的媒体规模不能太小，太小了利润上不去，而且也不能分散风险。

我想时报集团可以多样化运营，比如增加广告制作部门，增加网络部门，购买反周期行业的股票，如walmart。

GDP

经济危机下，交易变少，但是自给自足变多了，而传统的GDP是基于交易的，那些在家里面种菜、烧饭的活动是否也可以计入GDP呢？

Nonprofit Groups to Push for Exceptions to Lobby Rule

White House officials said there had been no internal debate on the matter and flatly dismissed the proposals, adding that they would not consider any changes because it would start the administration down a slippery slope of declaring some lobbyists acceptable and others unacceptable.

“You can’t have a value judgment,” said Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff.

David Axelrod, the president’s senior adviser, said Mr. Obama understood the tradeoff. Public trust in government is so fragile, he said, that it was important to stick to the campaign promise.

“It’s painful,” Mr. Axelrod said. “There are a lot of good people out there who are philosophically simpatico with us and are very skilled and would be very valuable to us.”

But, he said, “you can’t have carve-outs for lobbyists you like and exclude those that you don’t. It would be very hard for people to understand that distinction. This is one of those cases where we’ve had to sacrifice the help of a lot of very valuable people.”

When Builders Build Bad Loans

A promising bill in the California Legislature would try to do that by going after a particularly troublesome practice of corporate home builders. It would prohibit them from doubling as lenders, issuing mortgages on the homes they build.

第一，消费者交易是自己的事情，这种想法过时了吗？可以知道的是，这种放任确实造成了危机，有些消费者购买了房子，贬值了，他没钱了，不消费了，失业了，造成了经济危机，影响了别人

第二，那政府就可以干预了？或许我们还是放任消费者这样好点。因为产品和市场的信息不对称、不可知造成系统性问题，是不可避免的。

产品、市场信息不可知：谁都不知道这房子值多少钱

More Hatred From Mr. Ahmadinejad

The United Nations conference can never have credibility, or value, if it is used to attack one country — Israel — especially when so many other countries have truly abysmalhuman rights records, including China, Sudan and Iran.

In an ugly speech on Monday that served to divide and incite rather than find constructive solutions to racism, Mr. Ahmadinejad said the formation of the state of Israel left “an entire nation homeless under the pretext of Jewish suffering” in order “to establish a totally racist government in occupied Palestine.”

本来以色列人就是入侵巴勒斯坦呀。

犹太民族是一个有信仰有钱的民族。

中国的一党执政关你鸟事呀。你还是帮我们建立5权分立国家好点。

Immigration and the Unions

工会，美国国内工人想要快速成立，管理者不赞成

使已经到美国的非法移民合法化，美国国内公人不赞成，但是国会有些议员为了赢得选票又向这部分非法移民有过许诺

又一个美国国内政治的例子，复杂但不会使国家走向极端

Air Force should be eliminated？！

First, the Air Force should be eliminated, and its personnel and equipment integrated into the Army, Navy and Marine Corps. Second, the archaic “up or out” military promotion system should be scrapped in favor of a plan that treats service members as real assets. Third, the United States needs a national service program for all young men and women, without any deferments, to increase the quality and size of the pool from which troops are drawn.

Yes, air power is a critical component of America’s arsenal. But the Army, Navy and Marines already maintain air wings within their expeditionary units. The Air Force is increasingly a redundancy in structure and spending.

The military should develop a new accounting and personnel system that tracks the cost of developing its human capital and tallies each service member as an investment with a fixed value based on his education, training, experience and performance. This would reflect the departure of a valued service member as an asset lost, not a cost cut. Why are fit men and women who have served in combat, a human experience that a million dollars can’t buy, being pushed out instead of retained for 15, 20, 30 years?

Last, Mr. Gates should urge President Obama to confer with Congress and introduce national service at age 18 for all Americans. Under such a system, young people from all classes and backgrounds would either serve in the military or do other essential work like intelligence assessment, conservation, antipoverty projects, educational tutoring, firefighting, policing, border security, disaster relief or care for the elderly. The best qualified would be assigned to the military.

第一、政府的组织机构问题。有些组织应该合并，使反映速度变快。就好比你需要建一辆好骑的自行车，零部件要拧好，不要东一块西一块；该独立就独立，该结合就结合；情况变了独立或结合也要变

第二、政府、国会、军队等的独立问题。如果完全独立会怎样？如果军队是独立的，那么谁对它发号施令呢？一个想法可能是说国会是其最高统帅，但是国会并没有信息机构，何时大战不知道呀，那么政府部门内的FBI\CIA\NSA就应该画到军队去。现在的军队是属于政府管的。

Freegans

Freegans与乞讨者是有本质区别的，他们不会去乞讨，更不会接受施舍。他们只是秉行他们的宗旨：用行动与“失去理性”的消费主义保持距离，以减少对企业的支持及对地球环境的冲击。他们认为这样做可以减少垃圾存有量，并降低制造新食物及物品的机会。

一、到底是个性还是没钱

二、交易是市场经济的基石，如果不交易怎么有利润。

三、经济发展确实使熵降低了

假如美国的富人不帮助穷人

美国将会产生革命，共产主义的种子将会种下。

胡锦涛说

我们要建设的社会主义和谐社会，应该是民主、法治、公平、正义、诚信、友爱、充满活力、安定有序、人与自然和谐相处的社会

这是我们这个社会要达到的目标，而记者、媒体有责任宣传这个目标。

More Wii Warriors Are Playing Hurt

任天堂太有才了

The Older Audience Is Looking Better Than Ever

Those attitudes have been changing, for a couple of reasons. One is the recession, whichmakes older consumers who may have paid off mortgages seem a safer bet than youngerones who may get laid off in last-hired, first-fired downsizings.

“Especially in this economy, with marketers’ budgets under so much stress, they wouldprefer to spend dollars on today’s sales instead of thinking about establishing brand loyalty,” said Howard Shimmel, senior vice president for media product leadership at the Nielsen Company.

The other reason for the change is demographic. The estimated 78 million people bornfrom 1946 to 1964 — who have long set the agenda for Madison Avenue because of their numbers — are aging. The first boomers are turning 63 this year, and the youngest are turning 45.

危机改变目标市场

Employee Free Choice Act

the bill that would give workers the right to have their union recognized as soon as a majority signs cards calling for a union. The change would makeit easy to bypass secret-ballot elections, which are traditionally harder for unions to win.

管理者和员工都有话说，直接体现就是国会议员说法不一，但大伙可以看一下力量对比，在未有工会之前，供给方只有一个，力量很少，一旦有了工会，就不一样了，这种劳动力供给可以像产品一样具有可动性

又是犹太人

Lawmaker Is Said to Have Agreed to Aid Lobbyists

AIPAC、宗教右翼和美国的外交政策

都说美国的行政、立法、司法是独立的，它的行政有如FBI\CIA\NSA等收集信息机构可以威胁司法和立法，而它的立法、司法却没有这种机构

我想为经济画一张网

以企业为节点。

live with less

The human side of the global recession，an amazing work of nyt

房向东

中国最安静文才最好但力量最大的愤中

笔名方户、刁噱等。福建福州人。1977年赴闽北插队。1985年调《生活·创造》杂志工作，1991年调福建少年儿童出版社工作，1998年调福建人民出版社工作，现任副社长、副总编辑。中国鲁迅研究会理事。2002年加入中国作家协会。著有散文随笔集《钓雪集》、《肩住黑暗闸门的牺牲者》，专著《鲁迅与他“骂”过的人》、《鲁迅：最受诬蔑的人》。

没有美国和以色列的国际会议

The conference, the first United Nations conference in eight years to address the issue of racism, was already being boycotted by Israel, the United States and several important allies.

马克思、李嘉图、亚当斯密都是犹太人吗？

邪恶的犹太人将毁灭地球，房向东

犹太人建立了现代科学，现代经济学。

经济学里缺少了一环，就是商人。真的，西方经济学从不探讨商人的暴利行为。而犹太人经商是第一的。

PepsiCo Offers $6 Billion for Its 2 Main Bottlers

说一个商业事件哈，美国百事公司要收购他的两个关联“生产瓶子的公司”，原因是：

seeking the two acquisitions to help speed up its decision-making ability to keep up with shifting consumer trends

而10多年前，它把瓶子公司分出去的原因是：

Spinning off their bottling operations, while maintaining big stakes in those companies, helped keep what were deemed noncore operations off their balance sheets while still giving them some control over the distribution of their drinks products.

又一个危机改变管理方法的例子

Jeff Immelt, the chief executive of General Electric, who has warned, “This is not a cycle; it’s a reset.”

why government spend?

政府扩张信用，把经济气球的漏洞补上的初衷可以理解；但是这个漏洞不可以由私人补上吗？比如说发钱给私人。老建房子修路建博物馆也不是一回事哈。

怎样保证发钱给私人，私人就花掉。很简单嘛，在新闻联播上播一条消息：

大家的卡上国家给你打了1000块钱，去商场买东西吧，1个月后就失效了，1000*13亿，就是1万3千亿，比4万亿少一些。

中国现在每个人都有卡的，农民有“一卡通”

从电子到印刷

博客出书

群博客出书

互动博客出书

以前是先有书，再有电子稿；现在完全反了

为什么危机下还有国家涨税？

Ireland！

理由是：增税，同时减少政府开支，这样一来政府破产的可能性降低了，人民敢消费了，银行不惜贷了……

问题是：增税会对企业造成影响，结果是政府的税收会更低

有一个问题需要澄清的是，国家的债务，即政府的债务，多少回造成国家借款利率，它和民间经济的关系不是很明显的。

crony capitalism

任人唯亲！

怎么解决？

Software That Guards Virtual Playgrounds

When one site blocked the word “love,” Ms. Marshall says, the children substituted the word “glove.”

Such ingenuity is one reason that technology alone will never provide enough protection, she says. “Kids will find a way to communicate,” she says, “and you can’t block every word in the dictionary.”

Technologists agree with her. “There’s no silver bullet from a technical standpoint to do this,” says Mr. Smith at Keibi. “This is about helping humans to make a decision about whether there is a problem.”

音乐网站有一个搜索功能，你搜一首歌可能搜不到，但是你这一搜却可以免费地人工为网站指出“还有哪首歌我们网站没有的！”

你在输入验证码的时候，你可能不知道你是在为别人把扫描入数据库的图片给电子化，拼出来，原理是，你写了，别人也同样写这个，当你们写得一样时，就是写得内容就是图片上的内容

这些东西都散发出一个东西：试错法！人机合作！

很多网站上都有一项功能，就是“举报”，但是说实话，举报的人不多，这和人的素质有关。也有人为了打击别人故意举报。

家长控制软件都有一个弊端，就是“永远慢一步”，这其实也是试错法的表现形式；同理，质监部门也一般是通过试错法来检出伪品的，试错法看来不是市场的专利了。

还有什么办法吗？

Chicago Confidential

My services to the city of Chicago throughout the 1970s included exuberant participation in corrupt practices for which I pleaded guilty in 1984 and spent 18 months in federal prison. My venality may have known no bounds — at the time of my conviction some said that I was the recipient of more illegal loans than any civic official in Chicago history — but I was a relatively low man on the totem pole: a deputy sheriff and deputy county treasurer. As a protégé of the Cook County treasurer, Ed Rosewell, however, I basically had the run of his office with the tens of millions of dollars that flowed through it.

All these years later enough of them have gone to their reward to make me a little less queasy about telling their stories. But evidently one thing hasn’t changed: Political office still carries a price tag in the great state of Illinois.

Gary Goehl is writing a memoir of his career in Chicago politics.

寻租腐败天下都有，但是这不是对其缄默的借口，人类要进步，一定要限制官的权力，5权分离是一个好的方式。

Small-Town Big Spending

我们说虽然美国有了民主、分权体制，但是还需要人去做。因为这种机制就好比一部车，一部自行车，可以骑，但需要人去骑的。如果人民不闻不问，这个社会不会进步的。

在A国，这辆车只有政府能骑。

If this is a reset, it’s time to reorganize our state and local government structures for today’s realities rather than cling to the sensibilities of the 20th century.

 Franklin Roosevelt’s “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” 

One is the observation of Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff, that “you never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” Another comes from my boss, Jeff Immelt, the chief executive of General Electric, who has warned, “This is not a cycle; it’s a reset.”

上海交大

上海投资3亿办金融学院 欲建金融人才黄埔军校

中欧国际商学院也是上海交大弄的

上交到底有什么？

为什么经济膨胀比喻为“泡”

其实是这样的，在经济平稳期，经济是一个大小合适的气球，气球完整的，没有破的，组成了一个完整的供应链网络

膨胀期，气球被吹大了，而在气球里面的是快速流转的货币，不是物品。这些货币在平时没有流转，所以没有把气球弄大

但人民怕了，气球破了，再也吹不起来了，因为破了嘛，供应链断了，最经典的是供应链末端的最终消费者消费不起了

要么等待私人去补这个破洞，要么政府作为市场中人去补

我怎么看待中东的吵吵闹闹

Israel, Iran and Fear

第一、中东人都知道，人要发展，必先有和平，动物才天天打打杀杀，你看谁积累了多少财富？

第二、和炒股一样的，都以为自己不是傻子。他们认为打吧，对方会是被打怕的人，Jews和Arabs真的太揪心了。

第三、我讨厌别人说中国也曾是世界强国。我倒，中国强的时候，根本没有处理外交关系，都是闭关锁国的。以后中国强大了，就要处理外交关系了。

remake america capitalism

In a series of comments in recent weeks, Mr. Obama has begun to sketch a vision of where he would like to drive the economy once this crisis is past. His goals include diminishing the consumerism that has long been the main source of growth in the United States, and encouraging more savings and investment. He would redistribute wealth toward the middle class and make the rest of the world less dependent on the American market for its prosperity. And he wouldseek a consensus recognizing that an activist government is an acceptable and necessary partner for a stable, market-based economy.

两个国家什么时候笑，什么时候怒？

其实，这和：

两个企业什么时候笑，什么时候怒

两个小孩什么时候笑，什么时候怒

一样。

先说两个企业：

如果这两个企业是竞争者，那么合作和不合作是永远交替的

如果说这两个企业是上下游的，同理

再说两个国家：

美国和古巴（古巴经济长期维持以蔗糖生产为主的单一经济发展模式。古巴是世界主要产糖国之一）、委内瑞拉（该国属拉丁美洲地区经济较为发达的国家之一，是世界上重要的石油生产国和出口国）为什么怒，现在又为什么要笑呢?

看看美国和中国，中国人帮美国人生产东西，尼克松访华了，现在美国人觉得自己没工作了，那就怒了

再说两个人：

除了经济冲突，还有道德上的，情感上的，你侮辱我，你看不起我，你人品不好，我不爽……

国家之间和企业之间会有道德上，情感上的因素吗？

美国现在的问题

已经不是危机的问题，而是有钱人不愿帮助别人。借口是，这违背私有制，违背宪法，如果开了这个口，是饮鸩止渴。

一个伟大的社会有一个伟大的政府，显然奥巴马要说服美国有钱人，直接的就是说服这些有钱人在国会的代表。

市场经济必定导致贫富差距，但是我们不能够像splitt bank off一样，把有钱人和无钱人分开的。经济体制只是人的一部分，别在乎那点钱，帮助一下他人，经济才会起来，因为货币化后，经济其实基础是人民之间相互依附，面向未来的

为什么，美国人不嚷嚷要过社会主义生活？

历史上，FBI们也曾压迫过此类组织。

但是美国人知道，不能够饮鸩止渴。只要有公平的竞争机会，明天会更好。但是，资本家肯定会比平民机会多，概率上看，资本家永远会比劳动者有钱的。西方经济学家的解释是，那是因为资本家有资本，而且还冒了风险。我*，那我劳动者还吃不上饭了现在，你们是冒风险，我们劳动者承担损失。美国人会这么想的。

第一，如果这资本是继承来的，还有激励作用吗？大多数人的资本都是继承来的

第二，政府可以保证一个公平的竞争机会吗？显然不能，只有上帝可以。严格的说，政府没有理由去保证，只有司法机关可以，它可以强制政府制定政策时是公平的。

Debt Settlement Firms Offer Promises but Little Help

With the economy on the ropes, hundreds of thousands of consumers are turning to “debt settlement” companies like Credit Solutions to escape a crushing pile of bills.

As many as 2,000 settlement companies operate in the United States, triple the number of a few years ago. Settlement ads offering financial salvation blanket radio and late-night television.

Consumers who turn to these companies sometimes get help from them, personal finance experts say, but that is not the typical experience. More often, they say, a settlement company collects a large fee, often 15 percent of the total debt, and accomplishes little or nothing on the consumer’s behalf.

按理说，私人间的交易政府不该插手，但是牵扯到大面积的欺骗，这是一种强盗行为，对人民来说是公共品，公共防卫，一个伟大的社会需要一个伟大的政府，这个政府可以插手，问题是长期以往，我怕政府会越来越大，成为世间唯一一个强调，人民是引狼入室，初衷是好的，但是会怪坏狼的。

The Carters went to the West Virginia attorney general’s office in January, joining a flood of that state’s citizens complaining about debt relief schemes. “We’re being overwhelmed,” an assistant attorney general, Norman Googel, said.

Ill From Food? Ability to Investigate Varies by State

一个阐述联邦和州政府合作的极佳例子。

Right now, uncovering which foods have been contaminated is left to a patchwork of more than 3,000 federal, state and local health departments that are, for the most part, poorly financed, poorly trained and disconnected, officials said.

一个联邦和州政府，一个事中央和地方政府。

联邦和州政府的FDA：

人：州政府自己定

财：州政府自己拨款

事：州政府自己弄，偶尔和FDA合作；

中央和地方政府的卫生部（局）

人：地方自己定，虽领导需要备案，也就是商量

财：地方和中央各出一部分

事：地方和中央，但不是所谓的合作

我们说公共卫生是公共品，不应该由某个州某个地方提供，一定得由联邦和中央提供的。这样一来，人财事都统一起来，建立区别于行政建制的扁平化组织，加强了组织内的事务合作，信息共享。

一个担心

如果国家的权力被分立了，没有了一个强权的政府，人民会得不到保护？！

这个假设的前提是，如果没有一个最大的强盗，这个世界会有很多强盗；资本家会勾结司法体系压迫没钱的人。这种担忧有必要吗？

当然有必要。如果选举只是资本票，那就麻烦了，我们要加入人口票。我想大家现在看到的情况是，地方的有钱人和官员勾结很厉害，因为官员具有司法、行政、执法权。现在如果官员只具有行政权，他可以和有钱人勾结，但是还有司法和执法呢？对，有钱人也可以贿赂司法和执法，但是一个增加了难度，二个这也是一种进步吧

Nationalization

After the conversion, the Treasury would end up with about 36 percent of Citigroup’s common shares, which come with full voting rights. That would make the government Citigroup’s biggest shareholder, effectively nudging the government one step closer tonationalizing a major bank.

Nationalization, or even just the hint of nationalization, is a politically explosive step that White House and Treasury officials have fought hard to avoid.

The Treasury would also become a major shareholder, and perhaps even the controlling shareholder, in some financial institutions. That could lead to increasingly difficult conflicts of interest for the government, as policy makers juggle broad economic objectives with the narrower responsibility to maximize the value of their bank shares on behalf of taxpayers.

Those are exactly the kinds of conflicts that Treasury and Fed officials were trying to avoid when they first began injecting capital into banks last fall.

EMH

芝加哥大学少壮派也算是革新派fama提出的有效市场理论很有搞头。

要知道，对企业价值的估计都是基于对未来的预测，这是绝对不准的

而，经济人都是做自己认为正确的事

那为什么会大家看到一块去了呢：羊群效应？

Wall Street Finishes Week Higher, but Just Barely

美国股市、中国股市都连续几周上涨了，虽然涨幅不是很大，很多人会问是否触底了呢？

几年后我们会看到的。

福田康夫：2030年中国经济规模可能超过美国

福田说，几个研究机构的调查结果显示，包括日本、中国在内的整个亚洲经济到２０３０年将占据世界经济的半壁江山之多。虽然一个国家的国力不能仅仅按照经济规模衡量，但是仅从经济规模来看，２０３０年中国将超过美国，并且是日本的４至５倍。同时印度也将达到日本的２倍。

福田表示，这样的经济增长只有在全球经济相互依赖程度不断加深的情况下才能够实现。例如，为了谋求发展还需要引入来自国外的直接投资和贸易伙伴，并且这样做的结果还会带动周边国家的贸易扩大和经济发展。  

我在想，福田、布什和温家宝谈话的时候，会不会问这样一个问题：
当中国成为世界第一经济大国的时候，它如果继续保持同样的“政治、政府、官、民”关系的话，如何服众，如何领导其他不同意识形态的国家

其实我们根本不应该再讲什么意识形态的区别，只说“政治、政府、官、民”关系更切中要害。

我一再强调，5权分立和几党执政压根没关系，别去说那个政治敏感地带了，现实点。是谁，谁都不会割自己的大腿，别再胡乱猜想我党了。

为什么全部在国外学习的专家对中国问题都食言?

瞧，又一个人狂言。

一个伟大的社会必定有一个伟大的政府！

It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative

The idea of negative interest rates may strike some people as absurd, the concoction ofsome impractical theorist. Perhaps it is. But remember this: Early mathematicians thought that the idea of negative numbers was absurd. Today, these numbers are commonplace. Even children can be taught that some problems (such as 2x + 6 = 0) have no solution unless you are ready to invoke negative numbers.

Maybe some economic problems require the same trick.

N. Gregory Mankiw is a professor of economics at Harvard. He was an adviser to President George W. Bush.

第一、贷款利率为负，存款利率也会为负，那存款的人将把钱全部取出的。有人会说，在名义利率为零，通缩的情况下，实际利率不照样为负，为啥子不取钱，那是因为现实中的人有几人知道呢？另一方面是，你贷款利率为负，大家都会去贷款，银行是没有存款，只有贷款，会被抽空的，这下真没银行了。

第二，美元存贷利率为负，我想资金会外逃吧，机会成本。就是说银行外资金外逃。

第三，如果控制在一定的“量”内（边际作用），还是不会发生“质”变的，但美联储敢冒这个险吗？

美国政府机构FBI收集了美国人的资料，而且不公开

美国政府的律师(司法部）认为是国家安全需要，而美国民众和司法机构却认为，这样可能使政府滥用信息，侵犯隐私，更恐怖的是，政府可能借此压迫剥削人民。

至少，作为美国公民，持有效证件至少可以去FBI当地机构查看自己的资料吧！

Obama's Chief of Staff Wants to Hear GOP Proposals

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama's chief of staff is urging Republicans to step up and offer their own on ideas on how to overhaul health care and energy policy.

Rahm Emanuel says he's hopeful that Congress this year will pass major legislation on those big issues. But he says Republicans in the Democratic-controlled Congress have to stop being what he calls ''the party of no,'' ''the party of never'' and ''the party of no new ideas.''

Emanuel says that's not constructive and the GOP needs to offer its own ideas on how to overhaul health care and chart a new course on energy policy.

He says the challenge will come when Republicans come to the table with what he calls constructive ideas.

Emanuel spoke on ABC's ''This Week.''

W.P.A. Projects Left Their Stamp on the Region

The diversity of projects developed by the W.P.A. during the 1930s is astonishing, Mr. Taylor said. In New Jersey, unemployed white-collar workers were assigned the task of creating archival records and surveys in towns like Garfield, North Arlington and Rutherford, among others. “So many things might not exist if the W.P.A. hadn’t been able to match the talents of workers with specific assignments,” Mr. Taylor said.

That creativity certainly provides an object lesson for today’s stimulus spending, which thus far has emphasized big public works projects, not arts and culture. Today’s work force has changed dramatically since the 1930s, said Mark Wasserman, a history professor atRutgers University in New Brunswick.

“The work force is more white collar now, and white-collar workers don’t have the skills to build bridges,” Professor Wasserman said. “It’s a different world now.”

Perhaps, but renewed interest in the work of the W.P.A. suggests that in some ways, things may not have changed much at all.

现在人们手中的货币没有流通，对现有物品没有索取。政府当然可以扩张信用，印钞票，而且强制流通，比如说政府主导建一些东西。时间长了这些货币一同起来了，就会多了，就会通胀，就会产生恐慌，以及又一次危机。所以，我们一定要在经济好的时候把信用慢慢的收回来，最好的办法是，危机时补给别人的钱收回来。

filibuster

在美国参议院（固定的100名议员），针对某个议案，即使通过了50票，如果反对票的人还是不同意，可以提出filibuster ，即赞成票的人要取得60票（法国是2/3）才能把这个filibuster去掉，通过议案，否则免谈。

但是filibuster 这个东西，参议院可以通过50票就把它杀掉

好玩的是，没有哪个党敢去把它去掉，因为谁都可能成为少数党的。

每个人都是记者！

twiqqer.com，开创新闻传播模式新时代。

你可以根据地区、时间跟踪一个人。

做自认为有利的事情

这才是现实。有人经营失败，难道他开始知道会失败还会做吗？他就是认为这件事可以成功才会做

这么一来，经济学猜现实。博弈论里的囚徒困境才解释得清楚

做有利自己的事，no

做自认为有利的是，yes

但是，这样的话，市场还会产生最优配置吗？
会的，通过试错法。

温家宝：跨国公司要尽量少裁员

区内各类企业特别是跨国企业，只要坚守在这块土地上，尽量少关闭工厂、少裁员，加强各国企业在生产经营、技术研发等方面合作，一定能够在应对危机中实现新的跨越。

历史上每一个权力大的政府都认为自己能够控制一切，到后来只能空叹息

原国务院办公厅秘书王维工受贿1293万获死缓

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2009-04-19/003917638106.shtml

请看评论

我的总理呀，你不是天天上网吗？

杀是没有用的，只能解一时之恨。

我听得最多的官员推脱的话是

你在这个位置，也会这么做

就是说官员权力太大了

总理，我提两条意见：
一、让中国人民自由。

二、把官员的权力分了，不要只监督。5权分立在一党执政下同样可以完成的。

重庆万名高中生放弃高考调查:就业难成重要原因

据重庆市招生自考办公室的统计，今年重庆有上万名高中毕业生放弃高考，其中有不少来自农村学校。

记者近日在重庆江津、渝北、涪陵等区县采访时发现，导致农村学生弃考的原因，值得关注。

弃考：就业寒冬的连锁反应

教育其实也是商品。

青年举报被追捕续:河南灵宝公安局责任人被处理

1、灵宝市政府信息中心的公务员A在网上逛时，看到了关于灵宝的帖子。
2、A小公务员根据规定立即向信息中心主任B（政府办副主任）汇报，B一看，真是关于灵宝的，而且还很热。
3、B立即向直接领导信息中心的市政府办公室主任C汇报，C一看，帖子很负面，得讲政治了。
4、C立即向分管市政府办公室的副市长D汇报，D一看，眉头紧皱，这哪个小子想死了，做全市人民的敌人。分管宣传的同志不知道知不知道。
5、D立即与市委常委、宣传部长E通气（或者是“汇报”），E说我也已经知道了，那小子的确在给全市人民摸黑，说，这事关乎全市人民（一般都是“为人民”，打着“人民”旗 号）的声誉，我们分头向市政府和市委汇报这个情况吧，要么我俩联合向市委汇报。
6、经汇报，市长F、市委书记H知道了。F向H请示，您看这事？H说，这样吧，召集在家的常委和分管的政府同志开个紧急会议吧，对了，叫公安局长也参加。
7、市委扩大会议立即召开了，经集体的民主研究，书记最后发表集中的观点。我讲两点意见：一，此事关乎灵宝人民的形象，我们要从深入学习实践科学发展的高度出发，对肇事者 ，必须依法给予严肃的处理，此事关乎全市深入学习科学发展活动的成败；二，公安同志责成网络信息的警察立即给我查出发帖者是谁，不论是谁，给灵宝人民摸黑，就是跟灵宝的作 对，这样的敌人，挖地三尺也要把他找出来，两个小时内找不出来，你公安局长给我就地下岗。找出来，天涯海角也要给我揪回来。
好了，我还有事，一些具体工作F市长主持，大家在具体商量一下，我先走了。
8、会后，H书记立即向三门峡市委主要同志作了汇报，同时汇报了处理情况，市委主要同志说，就按你们的意见办，注意工作方法、注意依法办事。
9、F市长接着主持市委常委扩大会议，据分析，一要分析肇事者的社会关系，发帖者不可能什么太多的社会关系，如果有，他家的征地补贴就不会不满意，相信，他连一个村干部的 关系也没有，否则，他家的补贴也会让他满意的；如果是一个知情的有所谓正义感的干部所为，那就更好处理了。二要公安同志要把人找准，I局长能表态找准人吗？三，不惜一切开 支。四，大家分析一下用个什么理由把肇事者抓起来。五，宣传部的同志想办法通过媒体和网络挽回影响……好，散会。
9、公安I局长回到公安局立即召开党委会，两点，一是一个小时内把人找出来，找不出来，信息科科长下岗；二是找出来天涯海角把人给我抓回来，抓不回来，负责抓捕的同志立即 下岗。好，分管的J副局长你和信息科研究一下立即办理吧。对了，问一下，法制科用“诽谤罪”看行不行，诽谤领导嘛。
10、一个小时内信息科的网警K查出来了，发帖者在上海某地，经与上海警方联系，那是上海某公司，那公司上班的灵宝人有“王帅”。
11、公安法制科同志说用诽谤罪行，局长都说用这个了，不用这个还用哪个罪。
12、于是，王帅被抓回来关起来了。
13、王帅不是一般的农民，他有同事、有同学，他被抓住，他的同学、同事却不是一个村两个乡村民好对付！网，还在关注着。
14、8天里，不敢给王帅躲猫猫，而且，因网仍在发展，王帅的同事、大学同学，也不可能接受弄死王帅的结果。
15、看守所的同志也没有傻子，可不想做领导的替死鬼，迫于网络的明亮出的压力，8天后王帅出来了。
16、这期间，灵宝的宣传部的笨蛋副部长，做了几次蠢事，对着媒体说蠢话，且不止一次，当然，每次都是领导授意的。
17、王帅出来了，中青年报、中央电视台……
18、风口浪尖了，灵宝！
19、于是，三门峡、省公安不表态不行了！
20、公安副局长、网警、法制科，几位，顶一下吧，当然，事情过后，不会亏待你们的。
21、灵宝市委市政府分析，此事，最大的失误，同志们错误估计了王帅的社会关系力量，我们没有用的科学发展观分析问题，没有用的发展的眼光看问题，没有充分考虑到 一个小白领的能量，人家是个小白领，那么，他就有大学同学、就有公司同事，他没有社会关系，他的同学、同事有嘛，就算他的同学、同事家也没有什么大的社会关系，就那些同学 、同事本身的能量就不小啊，同志们！你们怎么能只把王帅当作一个普通的农民看待呢，过去那么做可以，那是因为过去我们抓的只是一个农民，王帅是农民么！！我的同志啊，我们 要用科学发展观指导自己 的行动嘛。我稍早一点离开会场你们就研究不出一个好一点的万全之策，这是教训啊，有关同志要深刻反思啊。
22、慢慢地，全国人民不记得这事了，当然，王帅及其家人也不能报复了，因为人家也是全国名人了！那几位顶罪的公安也就可能重新上岗，而且顶罪有功，上一个高台阶。

Why Thais Are Angry

Westerners think of Thailand as a democracy, ruled by the will of the majority. In reality, our country is governed by anestablishment made up of the monarchy, military and bureaucracy. Elections are held, but if the establishment doesn’t like the winning party, the government is dissolved. Unable to rely on the ballot box, people take to the streets.

Thailand, a constitutional monarchy, must find a path to real democracy. It should not emulate Nepal, a monarchy turned republic, because the unifying symbol of our king is integral to Thai identity. It shouldn’t follow the Philippines, where periodic people’s power movements have brought neither political stability nor economic vibrancy. The last thing we need is a military dictatorship like Myanmar’s. For all the country’s troubles, Indonesia’s transition to democracy after decades of autocratic rule may offer the best model.

By Tuesday afternoon people were out everywhere, celebrating what was left of the New Year. But don’t be fooled by this uneasy calm. Until Thailand becomes a true democracy, we can expect more chaos in the streets.

人说泰国乱是因为民主，其实不然，确切的说是因为搞民主，更确切的说，是因为不民主才乱。

No Cause for Arrest

事实证明任何国家都会发生官员欺压人民的例子，但是，核心是要有真正有效的途径去制衡它。

而是否有真正的途径，才是区分政治、政府、人民、官关系好坏的标准。这个社会需要伟大的政府，那就需要官员，我们要激励更要约束官员。

试错法

let we say，有一个老板开了一个企业，生产“清清”牌桶装水，后来在重庆大学喝坏了人，然后他的人也不见了：

一、假如他还在重大范围内生产水，即使他把水的名字换了，商人们也不会进他的水了

二、假如他在重大范围内生产饼干，还是会有商人进货的

三、假如他去其他地方，生产水，肯定会把名字换了，他或许还能再骗一次人，害一次人

四、于是，就需要一个组织去告他，通过法律手段把他教育好，这个组织可以使民间的某些组织，也可以是政府，政府部门内有检查官。

Some Caveats About Keeping Your Own Electronic Health Records

在美国，就像这种医疗IT类基础网络都是公私合作的。像这种医疗电子记录是一种网络。

GOOGLE HEALTH Google’s system has partnerships with the Cleveland Clinic, Beth Israel Deaconess, Quest Diagnostics, several pharmacies and other organizations. Google Health will let you connect to vendors who, for a fee, will transcribe your paper medical records into your electronic file.

MICROSOFT HEALTHVAULT Some users may be able to import data from a smallgroup of medical providers including New York Presbyterian Hospital, Cleveland Clinic,Quest Laboratories, several pharmacies and others. HealthVault also has agreements withmedical device makers to let patients import data from devices like blood pressure and blood glucose monitors.

REVOLUTIONHEALTH HEALTH RECORDS Users input medical data themselves,or RevolutionHealth employees will input records faxed to them directly from your healthcare providers. You will be directed to information and advice on the Revolution Health site related to your medical condition.

WEBMD PERSONAL HEALTH RECORD This system lets users store medical records, family histories and other health data. The site will direct you to WebMD information and tools related to your health data.

pay-to-play

Connecticut, like New York, places all pension decision-making authority in the hands of a sole trustee, rather than spreading it among the members of a board. Many governance experts think the use of a sole pension trustee does not build enough checks and balances into the system.

But decision-making by boards is not perfect either. California’s big public pension fund, known as Calpers, has suffered so many pay-to-play allegations that in 1997, the State Legislature passed a law barring such payments. But a member of the Calpers board, Kathleen Connell, took the matter to court and won. She argued that the law made it harder for incumbents than their challengers to raise campaign money. The law was thrown out.

当看病和路一样

给钱（交税）和走路不同时，当然会产生堵车

在美国人看来，这是增加了政府的规模，增加了官僚主义、腐败（民主社会），增加了税收，减少了资源的分配效率（平均主义、浪费、服务态度不好、消费者没有选择、……）

但是，一个伟大社会必须有一个伟大的政府。

问题是，基于市场交易的看病系统出了什么问题？答案是没有出问题，因为市场导致一部分看不起病正是市场分配资源的结果，就好比在豪华车市场，并不是每个人都买得起，这才是市场分配资源的结果，但是开车的话，买不起豪华车可以买自行车，还是可以运输的，但是看病有什么不同呢？因为，看病不能够分等级，差一个等级就是短命一年，这很残酷，涉及生命。你开奥拓是比开奥迪的面子少一点，但不至于致命。

于是，市场分配资源的结果注定是某些人看不起病，是看不起，不是看不了；在国家主持的看病系统里，大家平摊成本，势必会造成浪费，但是它的结果是大家都看得起病，但是看不了；于是NHS也要改进，比如引进”收费站“模式改善“堵车”现象；使用IT技术，让医院通过更好的沟通方式合理的分配资源。

问题是，谁来约束和激励医院呢：

一、组织结构上，扁平化

二、独立的绩效评价体系

三、人民可以通过司法体系告倒医生

Health Reform Without a Public Plan: The German Model

First, these countries all mandate the individual to be insured for a basic package of health care benefits.

Second, these nations try to tailor the individual’s contribution to the financing of health care closely to the individual’s ability to pay

Finally, premiums for children are covered by government out of general revenues, on the theory that children are not the human analogue of pets whose health care should be their owners’ (parents’) fiscal responsibility. Instead, children are viewed as national treasures whose health care should be the entire nation’s fiscal responsibility.

To see how this can work, think of the basic functions that any health system must perform. To wit:

• 1. the financing of health care, that is, the extraction of the required funds from individuals and households who ultimately pay for 100 percent of all health care
• 2. the pooling of individual risks with the aim of protecting individuals and households from the high costs of medical care in case of illness
• 3. the purchasing of health care from its providers (doctors, hospitals, drug companies, etc.)
• 4. the production of health care goods and services
• 5. the regulation of the entire system so that it operates towards socially desired ends.

NBA

各个球队不可能说打广告，都是NBA为美国篮球宣传。这种组织为全部球对提供的就是公共品，当然NBA也要收费，NBA的存在也会有腐败，也会限制创新，但是这些都是sideffect，重要的是在一个网里，需要这种组织。

网，不可分，所以就存在公共品。

Goldman Sachs是如何获得政府援助的

在bear stein、merrill lynch、lehman brother 相继没有获得政府援助的情况下，AIG\JPMORGEN\Goldman Sachs相继获得政府援助，后三大投行应该抗议，特别是他们的股东呀，为什么没有抗议呢？难道是因为他们是 一伙的？
paulson是时任美国财政部部长，而他持有很多高盛的股票，于是他就要提案了，为啥子国会又会同意了呢？

Brother’s Role in Congress Carries Weight in Race

即使有试错法，但是两党换来换去会形成某种默契，如两党都默许lobby。政府、官、民的关系真复杂

这也算是会计信息披露吗？

 U.S. Aims to Release Bank Stress-Test Results May 4 

证券可转手是需要会计信息披露的原因。证券可转手也是造成公司治理不好的原因，也是造成资产泡沫的原因。都说市场经济交易是自由的，你只要愿意买卖，政府就不能干预；这种在实业中还好，但是在金融体系内就不行，多次的金融危机都告诉我们，金融市场这种可转手会造成集体不理智，后果就是现有泡沫后有爆破，导致金融体系瘫痪，整个社会的融资渠道断了，整个社会的实业发展遭殃。这种系统风险的防卫就是一个伟大政府存在的原因之一。

: A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers

Shop Faster

You might think that browsing slowly through the store would help you pick out the best products. But our research shows that’s not the case.

The shoppers I studied who took the longest, examining packages, stopping at whatever caught their eye, invariably spent more money. They tumbled stray, often unhealthy, items into their baskets, and later, when questioned, couldn’t cite a reason for the purchases.

It turns out that making up a precise list beforehand and getting the errand done as quickly as possible is the best way to save money. Cutting time cuts costs, as well.

前人的结论到底有多少可以相信，而我们有多少人活在谎言里，心安理得的

Regulate me,please!

是的，政府做得好，这个社会才会好。如何提供好公共品是很重要很困难的，要犯很多错误，重要的是不犯有过痛苦经历的错误。

都说伟大的政府造就伟大的国家。而监管好金融机构，保证货币的价值都是必须的

CASSANDRA

Meet the Cassandras, 14 economists, bloggers, politicians and businesspeople of all political stripes who have become the most strident critics of President Obama's stewardship of the economy.

前人的研究的功过

有多少错误的草率的结论迷惑了后人

有多少正确的谨慎的结论帮助了后来的研究者

或许我们应把这些错误的人干掉

但是我们怎么把这些人区分开来呢

即使区分开来，也干掉了，那又何来对呢？

Local Issues Dominate as India Votes

就好比足球联赛和篮球联赛在中国不行一样（可能是和美国一比），民主在印度同样很纠结。

其实我们应该关注的不是民主与否，而是如何能够制度上保证制约官的力量。

Nearby, in a middle class precinct, Uma Shekar, 40, who works at a software consulting firm, said he was fed up with corruption. He said his family had traditionally voted for Congress, but frustrated, had turned to other parties in recent years as well. “Nothing is working,” he rued.

His father, Dasaratha Rama Iyer, 78, held himself aloft on his cane, said he kept comingto vote for a higher cause. “God has allowed me to live to see that democracy is notdemolished,” he said. “Indians should prove we can rule ourselves.”

即时通讯+社交网站 ……

这才是真正的网！

这让消息传得又快又恨

White Tiger Author Aravind Adiga Answers Your Questions

India and the United States are natural allies in just about every way. They’re both liberal, tolerant, democratic countries in a world where democracy, free speech, and religious tolerance are increasingly under threat. 

 In other words, India ends up as a kind of immense South American country in the heart of Asia. India can do much, much better than this, and I hope that its citizens force its government to give them this better future.

My point in The White Tiger is to puncture the sense of complacency that too many Indians have — this feeling that, oh, we’re a democracy, all our problems are fixed. Democracy isn’t a panacea. Corruption and misgovernance can thrive within a democracy, as India’s history shows; they have to be addressed before democracy works for the poor.

What unites India is the innate liberalism of its culture, I think. Indians are a liberal, tolerant people: there is room for free speech and debate here. No other country in South Asia is as free as India; that is why India is the only truly stable country in a region torn by civil strife and chaos. Look at the example of Pakistan, for instance, which is plunged in chaos. What keeps India strong is its freedom. In the last 10 years, this freedom of expression has come under attack from various extremist groups — Hindu extremists, Islamic fundamentalists, ultra-nationalists — and I fear that freedom of speech is diminishing by the day. Without its freedoms, India turns into a failed state like Pakistan.

如何监管金融机构

一、大部门，即任何金融机构由一个部门负责监管

二、对这个大部门的监督

三、门槛监管，只要满足要求都可以进进入机构；但是只要你不满足要求，你就必须强制退出，marginal account是一种方式，即当你资不抵债的时候，给你两个选择，要么增资，要么破产。（这相当于实业中的工商部门）

四、金融机构的主营业务就是放贷，扩张信用，这种需要本来是政府的，金融机构是受政府委托扩张信用的。于是，对于金融机构的放贷质量要监督的，试错法也好，事前由质监局监督也罢。试错法在金融市场是很麻烦的，因为没有消费者！金融机构放款，我借款，何来消费者？金融机构是消费者，他能够不放款给违约者？

五、看不见的风险，无可奈何的纳什均衡。谁会想到自己的放贷会提高系统风险呢？金融体系是一个网，重要的不是把网打破，而是不让个别企业控制了一个节点，比如说保险。如果由1到2点有很多路，就不会出现完全瘫痪的地步，如果1到2只有一条路，那么这条路断了，即使其他点之间有很多路，这个就是bottlenecks了

公共品，资格认证，公共资源

这三项可以基本概况政府提供的东西了：
一、公共品。路是最好的例子。政府存在的情况下，对路的交易是分两部分的，交钱在收税，接受服务确是在路上。如果是私人提供，要解决的问题是，私人如何分配修路的权力，如何规划；而且交易可能不分两部分，交钱和接受服务同时了

二、资格认证。这种认证 可以保证经济环境的安全，一定程度体系的是国家统治阶级的意愿

三、公共资源。土地和水。

私人无法完成的，如果完成了，这些私人自然会形成政府。而一个国家的伟大，一部分体现在3法部门的独立（司法、立法、执法），一部分体现在政府对这三种东西完美的提供

在没有政府的日子里

市场经济如何运作：

一、道路等公共品谁来修建，谁来维护。私人，那么大家没走一段路都得花钱了。

二、我要开一个公司将不用资格认证，这样一来，整个国家的经济环境会怎样，还有人敢和陌生人交易吗？信用还会存在吗？委托代理关系还会存在吗？
三、土地、空气、水很难私有化的东西怎么办？会出现恶性哄抢吗？
四、当然，还会有立法、司法、执法机关，这些机关就是不能够提供公共品，不能够提供资格认证，不能够参与市场运作（如对土地的处理）。但是，这3个机构可以维持社会治安，可以伸张正义，可以保证合同的正常守卫

五、公共品、资格认证、公共资源的运作可以由私人来运行吗？30个公司，咋们形成竞争，共同提供公共品？会造成无序竞争吗？比如说在同一个位置，我们都要建路，一个污染大家都不愿去处理，我们随便注册公司，土地等公共资源谁都想要。

Goldman Sachs，Government Sachs？

The question many Wall Streeters are asking is just how Goldman once again snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Many point to Goldman’s expert manipulation of the levers of power in Washington. Since Robert Rubin, its former chairman, joined the Clinton administration in 1993, first as the director of the National Economic Council and then as Treasury secretary, the firm has come to be known, as a headline in this newspaper last October put it, as “Government Sachs.”

techolism,orgnalism,goodmanism

capitalism,资本拥有者分配剩余价值最多

techolism，技术拥有者分配剩余价值最多

orgnalism，生产者分配剩余价值最多

googmanism，好人分配剩余价值最多

问题是，怎么达到这种状态

split off and claw back

如果严格按照意识形态上的说法，市场经济已死。split off,把市场经济中的企业分为坏企业和好企业，比如银行和汽车公司。美国现在有富人和穷人，难道我们也要split off他们吗？就是说，市场已经完成了自己的功能，把好坏企业分开了。问题是，坏企业里的人也有好人，而这些人会不服气。

claw back也很有意思，你买错一个东西，你要退货。

任何伟大国家的崛起都是因为一个伟大的政府，而不是大。这个伟大政府做得唯一一件伟大的事情就是很好地提供了公共品。

Taxing, a Ritual to Save the Species

Modern taxes are just a “newfangled version of commitment to the group,” said David Sloan Wilson of Binghamton University, the result of the invention of money. Yet even with our elaborate, abstracted tax code, fear of public opprobrium remains an impressive motivator. “It’s expected that powerful, high-status members of society should be contributing more,” Dr. Wilson said. “If they don’t, they won’t remain high status for long.” And for the fat bats among us who just won’t cough up the goods — there’s always jail.

what have i done!

opendiary.com

我今天看了什么电影，听了什么歌，做了什么事，看了什么东西……

‘Hyperlocal’ Web Sites Deliver News Without Newspapers

That raises the question of what these hyperlocal sites will do if newspapers, a main source of credible information, go out of business. “They rely on pulling data from other sources,so they really can’t function if news organizations disappear,” said Steve Outing, who writes about online media for Editor & Publisher Online.

But many hyperlocal entrepreneurs say they are counting on a proliferation of blogs and small local journalism start-ups to keep providing content.

“In many cities, the local blog scene is so rich and deep that even if a newspaper goes away, there would be still be plenty of stuff for us to publish,” said Mr. Holovaty of EveryBlock.

twiqqer.com，彻底改变新闻产生、传播模式

With Finance Disgraced, Which Career Will Be King?

Public service, government, the sciences and even teaching look to be winners, while fewer shiny, young minds are embarking on careers in finance and business consulting.

Formerly Joyous, Black Voters Waver on Support for Paterson

在这个案例里，我们可以看到美国政治和政府的特征：
一、议员和政府的关系

二、议员和官员的关系

三、不同政党的关系

四、联邦和州的关系

五、分权是西方政治的核心，而不是民主选举。三权分立，民可告倒官。在一党执政的情况下，可以实现分权嘛？可以！

Plan to Change Student Lending Sets Up a Fight

正方：Representative Howard P. McKeon of California, the senior Republican on the education committee, said Democrats should not cut out private lenders. “A government-run, one-size-fits-all program is not the answer,” he said.

反方：At the Wilkes-Barre event, Mr. Lord of Sallie Mae acknowledged his industry’s reliance on the government. “I don’t see private capital financing student loans, certainly any time soon,” he said.

裁判：Anticipating a ferocious legislative battle, Representative George Miller, Democrat of California and chairman of the education committee, is weighing all options.

“Chairman Miller’s priority is to make our federal student loan programs as reliable, sustainable and efficient as possible for students, families and taxpayers,” his spokeswoman, Rachel Racusen, said.

确实，现在美国的私有学生贷款部门也是靠政府救助维持，这样，问题就产生了，那为什么还要私有部门呢？但是，转变是痛苦的；而且你把这些功能给内化了，需要扩招人嘛？如果不用扩招人，学生贷款的效率能够保证吗？
多几个供给者有什么不好，我就提出过工商部门可以多几个（资格型的职能部门）

市场竞争

经济学家都说这个是好的，可以把资源分配好。但是，有几点其他的想法：
一、市场竞争对竞争者的思想道德的影响。有人变得唯利是图，更坏了。而且还迫害同行！国家层面也是如此。这就是为什么竞争性情报这么重要，你可以被市场打倒，但不能被竞争者迫害

二、市场竞争对消费者的思想道德的影响。

几个难搞的市场

劳动力市场  Longer Unemployment for Those 45 and Older

毒品市场

因为人赋予了其感情，特殊的意义，或者要求更苛刻

tax i

irs tax you 

tax me,come on 

tax i taxi

Costa Rica

It put energy, environment, mines and water all under one minister

As a result, Costa Rica hugely invested in hydro-electric power, wind and geo-thermal, and today it gets more than 95 percent of its energy from these renewables. In 1985, it was 50 percent hydro, 50 percent oil. More interesting, Costa Rica discovered its own oil five years ago but decided to ban drilling — so as not to pollute its politics or environment! What country bans oil drilling?

Rodríguez also helped to pioneer the idea that in a country like Costa Rica, dependent on tourism and agriculture, the services provided by ecosystems were important drivers of growth and had to be paid for. Right now, most countries fail to account for the “externalities” of various economic activities. So when a factory, farmer or power plant pollutes the air or the river, destroys a wetland, depletes a fish stock or silts a river — making the water no longer usable — that cost is never added to your electric bill or to the price of your shoes.

Costa Rica took the view that landowners who keep their forests intact and their rivers clean should be paid, because the forests maintained the watersheds and kept the rivers free of silt — and that benefited dam owners, fishermen, farmers and eco-tour companies downstream. The forests also absorbed carbon.

To pay for these environmental services, in 1997 Costa Rica imposed a tax on carbon emissions — 3.5 percent of the market value of fossil fuels — which goes into a national forest fund to pay indigenous communities for protecting the forests around them. And the country imposed a water tax whereby major water users — hydro-electric dams, farmers and drinking water providers — had to pay villagers upstream to keep their rivers pristine. “We now have 7,000 beneficiaries of water and carbon taxes,” said Rodríguez. “It has become a major source of income for poor people. It has also enabled Costa Rica to actually reverse deforestation. We now have twice the amount of forest as 20 years ago.”

网上沃尔玛

internet-walmat.com

今天去逛家乐福，它在地下，空气不流动，人多，很闷，结账排队很久。

超市当初建立的时候因为其品种多，价二不真，吸引了很多人，现在这种优势似乎没有了。如果网上的沃尔玛，同样可以保证品种多，就是很多人不会上网，即使上网了谁去运输，有人说是超市运输，可以，加钱。中国很多人的时间并不是那么宝贵的，完全可以在网上定了以后，自己来超市交钱，快多了。

国家的分开和企业的分开这么容易吗？

President of Sri Lanka Orders Halt in FIghting

 Asia's longest-running civil wars

The Tigers have vowed not to give up their fight for a separate nation for Sri Lanka's Tamil minority, which has engulfed the Indian Ocean island nation in a civil war that has killed at least 70,000 since 1983.

说实话，哪个国家当初不是打下来的，都是强制合并的。现在，斯里兰卡有些地区想离婚，想分开，也需要打。

今天本应该去烈士墓扫墓的。看看我党在拿下中国的过程中死了多少人呀。

游戏中的经济学

纸牌游戏：比如说升级，参与者从游戏中直接获得收益，不需要裁判，但是也有人造假，这可以由参赛者自己监督

球游戏：比如说足球，参与者并不会从游戏中直接获益，而是从胜利后获得收益：广告、代言；这种游戏是否可以不要裁判呢？

经济活动，供给者互相竞争和消费者交易的机会，直接从交易中获益，何用裁判？

美国什么条件下要打一个国家？

假设一：这个国家在经济上超过它的时候？

日本超过它的时候它并没有打日本

假设二：这个国家在军事上超过它的时候？
俄罗斯在军事上超过它，美国还敢打吗！

假设三：美国感觉到危险？
9.11后的阿富汗和伊拉克战争，朝鲜战争，两伊战争，越南战争

假设四：这个国家不和它做生意的时候？
中东在石油上卡美国，中国在贸易上卡美国

归根结底美国是一个商业化的国家，只要你和他做生意，它有钱赚，你也会有钱赚。现在中国红红火火搞经济，它盼望得很

但是，它怕中国超越它吗？如果中国超越它，而资本家可以安全到中国来倒没什么，问题是中国号称是社会主义国家，潜在意思是，不高兴了就把你国有化了。