Paul Paul

As a result, the odds are that the financial system won’t function normally until the crucial players get much stronger financially than they are now. Yet the Obama administration has decided not to do anything dramatic to recapitalize the banks.

Can the economy recover even with weak banks? Maybe. Banks won’t be expanding credit any time soon, but government-backed lenders have stepped in to fill the gap. The Federal Reserve has expanded its credit by $1.2 trillion over the past year; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become the principal sources of mortgage finance. So maybe we can let the economy fix the banks instead of the other way around.

But there are many things that could go wrong.

It’s not at all clear that credit from the Fed, Fannie and Freddie can fully substitute for a healthy banking system. If it can’t, the muddle-through strategy will turn out to be a recipe for a prolonged, Japanese-style era of high unemployment and weak growth.

paul krugman.很多人说你是唱衰主义者，不是真本事，只有能够预测什么时候复苏才是真本事，只有能够彻底改变经济周期才是本事。其实，能够预测经济萧条多久，也是能够赚钱的。

我不知道，paul你是否卖空证券？如果你是一个政府的人，你不太可能能够这么说，如果你是一个企业的经济学家，那么你这么说也不得人心。

金融、石油、国防，三个遏制美国喉舌的关键，你不是研究这块的（你因国际贸易理论而获Nobel 经济学奖），但是你却一直在说金融，你说金融机构是国家担保的，这是肯定的；你说应该国有化现在的银行，怎么操作？你说应该政府再加大开支。