do we need a new financial system?II

Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System

• Change the incentives of traders and large profit centers at large financial institutions with “bonus-malus” reserve accounts, which penalize employees whose actions trade current profit for future losses. This would essentially bring "clawbacks" into the compensation system. UBS's bonus scheme, granting bonuses in the form of claims on a portfolio of toxic assets, is a good example. 

• Prevent obvious regulatory arbitrage (privatizing, for example, the financial investments of government-sponsored enterprises) and charge for guarantees – deposit insurance, too big to fail, loan guarantees and the bailout – using marking-to-market that reflects leverage and risk in a continual manner. It will be good to know whether the financial system can even pay for the subsidies it receives. 

• Recognize the negative externality of LCFIs. Then quantify the systemic risk of LCFIs and “tax” (through capital requirements or deposit insurance fees) their contributions to systemic risk rather than individual risk. This is hard to do, but present regulations do not even claim to address the problem. The need for such systemic risk regulation, possibly by augmenting Central Bank agendas, is only underscored by the growing size of the few remaining players in the financial arena. 

• Enforce greater transparency of over-the-counter derivatives positions and off-balance-sheet transactions, employing centralized clearing for standardized products and, at a minimum, centralized registries for customized ones so that counterparty risk can be assessed. 

私有部门的失败居然导致了系统风险，这是亚当斯密、凯恩斯都想不到的。

do we need a new financial system?

A proposal to prevent wholesale financial failure by Lasse H. Pedersen and Nouriel Roubini

There are two challenges associated with reducing the risk of a liquidity crisis. Systemic risk must be first measured and then managed. We propose to define a bank’s systemic risk as the extent to which it is likely to contribute to a general financial crisis. This measure can be estimated using standard risk-management techniques already used inside banks – but not across banks, as we propose – to weigh how much each trading desk or division contributes to the overall risk of a bank. We set this out in an NYU Stern project on restoring financial stability.

With this measure of systemic risk in hand, a regulator can manage it. We propose two ways to manage systemic risk. First, the regulator would assess each bank’s systemic risk. The higher it is, the more capital the bank should hold. This would seek to ensure that the banking system as a whole had sufficient capital relative to the system-wide risk. This is just like the headquarters of a bank charging each trading desk or division for use of economic capital measured by its contribution to overall firm risk.

Second, each institution would be required to buy insurance against its systemic risk – that is, against its own losses in a scenario in which the whole financial sector is doing poorly. In the event of a pay-off on the insurance, the payment should not go to the company, but to the regulator in charge of stabilising the financial sector. This would provide incentives for a bank to limit systemic risk (to lower its insurance premium), provide a market-based estimate of the risk (the cost of insurance), and reduce the fiscal costs and the moral hazard of government bail-outs (because the company does not get the insurance pay-off). Since the private sector may not be able to put aside enough capital for all the systemic risk insurance, government could provide part of it. Government already provides such partnership on insurance with the private sector in terrorism insurance.

系统风险的产生，是过程博弈的结果，即每个金融机构在长期博弈过程中的纳什均衡选择就是不顾放贷过多收不回来。针对这种博弈均衡，我们要通过外部力量改变每个选项的收益函数。这也许是改变旧的金融体系的一个妥协。

大学生还贷计划

早就听说大学生毕业后不按期偿还助学贷款的案例了。

受海外网上web2.0理财的启发，我觉得可以办一个网站，让毕业后的大学生在上面制定并实施还款计划。

此网站：

需要大学生提供借贷卡和信用卡信息

网站需要和银行合作，网站用户在本网就可以还贷

网站直接从信用卡和借贷卡、银行信息处下载信息，为客户分析，并制定还款计划

twitter\QQ\email\短信\飞信通知用户信息

信息安全

网站推广

有了大学生这类稳定客户后，应该开发新的功能和客户，新的功能包括投资计划，公益计划等等。新的客户包括白领阶层。

投资计划，可以借助“直接投资渠道模式”

阿里巴巴真的帮助了中小企业吗

或者只帮助了一部分人，一部分行业

显然，淘宝确实提高了交易量，同时也帮助了漏税。

网络理财 web2.0

西方

综述性的文章，Lose Confidence in Your Bank? Turn to the Web

mint，We download, categorize and graph all of your finances automatically every day, so you know where you’re spending, without spending any effort.  需要提供信用卡

smartpig，SmartyPig functions as a social network where, if you make your goal public, friends and family can provide financial support. You can also add your personalized SmartyPig widget to your Facebook or MySpace page, blog or Website. Not to mention, you can start your own SmartyPig Friends Network.Savings Accounts are held in West Bank and are FDIC insured up to the maximum amount allowed by law, making using SmartyPig as safe and secure as using your own bank. 

Cake Financial

中国

理财易 就是记账并分析。

更大更综合还是更小更专注

Google和baidu、QQ一直在聚合，一直在收购

而根本性的创新却产生于一个小房间，一两个人，一台电脑

alibaba是聚合型的，但是有谁会同时做两个不同的行业呢？分行业的B2B也在做，但是没有管理好

税

税对市场的经济效益已经有很多讨论。主要体现在剩余的分配上

对宏观的影响也讨论了很多。主要体现在对GDP的影响，出名的是拉弗曲线。

对于微观企业和消费者的影响也正在讨论。对微观经济者的影响分好几个方面，一个是纵向的边际影响，一个是横向的差异影响。边际影响，其它条件不变，每改变一单位税的影响；差异影响，指相同条件，不同的税的影响。

每项刺激计划确实需要讨论

Rural Broadband: No Job Creation Machine

In a bracing refresher course on why they call economics the dismal science, a gathering of academics Thursday poured cold water on the idea that the new stimulus plan will create lots of jobs and improve the lives of many by wiring rural areas for broadband Internet service.

The gathering was a seminar in Washington sponsored by the business schools of Columbia and Georgetown to assesse the impact of the broadband stimulus.

Novel Twist in Old Swindle Ends in Arrest

To carry out the elaborate scheme, prosecutors in New York said on Friday, the man, identified as Paul Gabriel Amos, 37, a Nigerian citizen who lived in Singapore, worked with others to create official-looking documents that instructed Citibank to wire the money in two dozen transactions to accounts that Mr. Amos and the others controlled around the world.

The money came from a Citibank account in New York held by the National Bank ofEthiopia, that country’s central bank. Prosecutors said the conspirators, contacted by Citibank to verify the transactions, posed as Ethiopian bank officials and approved thetransfers.

郎咸平：其实中国和俄罗斯都被算计了

遇到这种情况，中国人会使用黑道的。但是，问题是，别人是通过正常的商业规则算计你的，你使用黑道的话就不文明了。

资本为何犯下两次“原罪”

1945年毛泽东赴重庆谈判时，曾三次与刘鸿生、吴蕴初、范旭东、章乃器、胡厥文、吴羹梅等工商界领袖座谈，并郑重承诺：中国应当建设成为一个独立、民主、富强的新中国。在这个新中国里，民族工业应当得到保护，民族工业只有在这样的国家里才能得到发展。在新民主主义阶段，中共不主张没收资本家产业，而主张实行调节劳资矛盾的政策；绝不会把爱国工商界当敌人，相反把他们看成朋友，希望大家为建设新中国共同努力。
1949年新政协通过的《共同纲领》规定：“凡有利于国计民生的私营经济事业，人民政府应鼓励其经营的积极性，并扶助其发展。”中共领导人在建政之初，对保护民族工商业尚能保持清醒认识。按照当时的设想，要经过10年至15年的发展，完成了新民主主义的建设阶段后，再视情况考虑转入社会主义。但事实上仅维持了七年。1952年“五反”运动期间，毛泽东开始考虑提前发动社会主义革命。他在1952年6月6日审阅中共中央统战部起草的《关于民主党派工作的决定》时作出批示：
在打倒地主阶级和官僚资产阶级以后，中国内部的主要矛盾即是工人阶级与民族资产阶级的矛盾，故不应再将民族资产阶级称为中间阶级。

1956年初，掀起了全行业公私合营的高潮，年底“对资改造”基本完成，“国家资本主义”就此垄断了全国的工商业。作为对生产资料的赎买，国家自1956年起，按5％的年息向工商业者支付定息。

如今个人持有股票乃寻常之事，而成为一名爱国的“红顶商人”，更是一种时尚。

Whom Do Corporate Boards Represent?

Uwe E. Reinhardt is an economics professor at Princeton.

中国独具几大委托代理关系：

大股东-----管理者

大股东+管理者---其余股东

小股东+管理者---国家控股

中国传统的智慧是，只要你管理者不过分，我股东能够摆平，委托代理关系、公司治理违规点就算了。但是经济危机否定了这种观点，关于经济危机，特别是银行困境是否是由这种不规范造成的讨论络绎不绝。

ponzi scheme

Allen Stanford,

Bernard Lawrence "Bernie" Madoff ,

Charles Ponzi (March 3, 1882 – January 18, 1949) 

一个显著的共同点是，他们比竞争者向客户保证更高的回报，当然会引起同行眼红的。

事发后，客户会表现得很理智吗？美国，一个法制化国家或许会，在中国就难说了，很可能借助黑帮力量保证损失最小。

又一会计先主子落马

扁家“账房”四罪全认 

检方指控陈镇慧犯有伪造文书、伪证、贪污、洗钱等罪行

长年担任陈水扁办公室会计并掌管账目的陈镇慧

两院院士

税

当然影响税后利润!

那是否会影响税前利润呢？税高，毛利就低，税低，毛利就高？

那是否会影响企业的特定行为？如投资。税高税低?神舟公司，之前它的投资税是0.3，现在变为0.6，肯定会减少投资吗？神舟公司，0.3；戴尔公司，0.5，那么hasee和dell谁会更愿意去投资呢？如果他们用自己的钱，都愿意，因为假设投资税是直接税，是有利后才交的，dell即使不投资这个，它手中握的钱就会去投资其他的，如果其他的收益率和这个投资一样，那么它就会投资这个，如果其他的收益率更高，那么它就会去投资更高的项目，机会成本；如果他们都向外借钱投资，那么hasee更愿意，因为有钱的人更愿意借钱给hasee。

直接税的优点，只有自己赚钱了才交，缺点，要交就交自己的钱

间接税的优点，不用自己交钱，缺点，需要交易时就交，影响买方的购买行为

直接税可能的影响是，企业提高利润率，就会影响产业链下游；间接税可能的影响是，它会影响下游，企业可能会降低利润率

税的作用主要体现在边际上，你提高一个税率，对于经济人的机会成本分析是会造成根本转变的。

税和绩效有关吗？税和竞争力有关吗？

税

分类标准：容易实证

按行业分

按不同的公司分

The central difference between the models is whether the competition is between conduit entities that must compete for funds or is between the ultimate investors themselves.  When the competition is between conduits that raise the funds to invest, competitiveness neutrality requires that the tax cost of the investment be the same across entities.  In contrast, when the competition is between investors who invest their own money, then neutrality does not require that the tax cost be equal across the investors.  Instead, when investors are investing their own money, competitiveness neutrality requires only that tax incentives have the same dollar value for all competitors.

When analyzing tax policy, the choice of model can lead to different prescriptions. When the competition is among conduits, the conduit through which the tax burden is lowest has a competitiveness advantage.  Thus, competitiveness neutrality requires that the tax cost of funds

to all conduits is equal.  In contrast, when the competition is among investors, a difference in tax

burdens generally does not affect competitiveness.  That is because the benefit of a low tax rate is

the same on the candidate and alternative investments. 

If funding is coming from outside sources, then the conduit model is appropriate. In contrast, if

funding is coming from the investor directly, then the investor model is appropriate.

A.  The Conduit (or New Money) Model

Consider a simple example.  Andrew is looking to invest $1000 in a project that will pay

$1100 in one year.  Andrew can make the investment through either one of two entities.  If he

makes the investment through entity A, he will pay tax on his income from the project at 20

percent;  if he makes the investment through entity B, he will be taxed at 40 percent.  Obviously, assuming all else were equal, Andrew will choose entity A, which will leave him with $1080,over entity B, which will leave him with only $1060.In this situation, where an investor is choosing between conduits,  the investor would prefer to invest through the conduit that minimizes taxes.  Of course, there might be other, non-tax reasons that would cause an investor not to use the most tax-efficient vehicle.  However,looked at solely from a tax perspective, we would expect the investor to choose the vehicle that minimizes taxes.

I use the term conduit to mean an investment vehicle rather than the ultimate investor.

Specifically, I am not using the term conduit, as it is often used in the tax literature, as a synonym

for an investment entity that is not obligated to pay taxes itself.  I refer to an entity that does not

have an obligation to pay tax on its own behalf as a pass-through entity

B.  The Investor (or Old Money) Model

Returning to the example, assume that Andrew will be taxed at 20 percent if he makes the

investment.   Consider a second potential investor, Betty, who is also looking at the same 22

investment.  Betty is taxed at 40 percent.   Assume further that there is only one unit of the 23

investment available and that the unit cannot be divided.  If Andrew acquires the investment for

$1000, he will end up with $1080 after paying taxes; if Betty acquires the investment for $1000,

she will end up with $1060 after paying taxes.

It might be thought that Betty is at a tax-induced competitiveness disadvantage relative to

Andrew because she is taxed at a higher rate (40 percent as opposed to 20 percent).  After all,

Andrew ends up with $1080, whereas Betty ends up with only $1060 from that same investment.

Furthermore, it is often implicitly assumed, and sometimes explicitly stated, that Andrew will

outbid Betty because he ends up with more than she does after paying taxes.  That, however, does

not follow.

【Taxes and Competitiveness，Michael S. Knoll，University of Pennsylvania】不好实证

按税种分 直接和流转

按税制要素 如所得税，抵扣项问题。债务利息支出可以抵扣，股利分配支出不可以抵扣，影响企业行为。

按时间分

影响

分类标准：容易实证                                   

企业绩效

企业竞争力

当然是假设其他条件不变，但是如果税只能和另外一个因素结合才能产生明显效果时，这种实证方法就不好了。

税收组合影响法  那税和其他什么因素组合可以产生明显效果呢？税收征收的严格性，政府办公的公正性，经济环境，特别是外部需求状况，信贷环境，行业竞争程度，投资者个性

In France Ads Aim at Heart, Not Wallet

This explains why television commercials started so late here — essentially because leftist opposition saw ads as corrupting the soul

But the government argued back in 1968 that commercials would help French companies and (this from the land of Descartes and Tocqueville) also further democracy, in that television had become a democratic medium. (Some 60 percent of French households owned TV sets by then.)

Before that, French stations broadcast only a few public-service spots carrying messages like “Change the tie, the tie will change you,” “Eat apples for beautiful teeth” and “Beans at your place” (to promote French legumes). Such earnest ditties yielded by the 1980s to what Amélie Gastaut, the curator of the Musée des Arts Décoratifs show, likened the other day to a Renaissance of French television advertising.

That decade was the Golden Age

American commercials go from the head to the wallet, British ones from the head to the heart, French, from the heart to the head.

难怪法国的广告这么经典！

The Body as Billboard: Your Ad Here

那身体做广告板，重点是创意。

Breaking a Barrier to Lending

a  serieof charts explain the issue simplely and clearly

家电下乡

here,here,here

几个问题：
网络使用费相对更贵，这是摩托车、电视推广的优势。解决方法：行政降低农民网费

电脑和网络使用问题，电脑再怎么说也是高兴技术。解决方法：要么装傻瓜系统，要么培训农民

售后服务问题，现在的电脑维修点大多在县级。但是这个问题不用担心，因为市场会吸引人去农村开店的。

人世间有很多事情，事情发生了，

两类人想法不一样：

想为什么

抱怨结果

想为什么的一类人又分：
从自己身上找原因

从别人身上找原因

从自己身上找原因的人又分：

试图改变自己

试图改变他人

从别人身上找原因的人：

试图改变他人

\当然现实中，很少的是从自己和别人身上一起找原因的人/