2009年3月23日星期一
The U.S. remains the top buyer of Venezuelan oil despite long-standing political tensions.
但是奥巴马和查韦斯在互相指责
委内瑞拉的财政收入70以上是从石油交易中获得的！
美国希望得到什么呢？任何国家的臣服？而委内瑞拉希望得到什么？经济增长，财富，地位？
这些是矛盾的。委内瑞拉强大了是不会臣服你的，而你要它臣服又得给它好处，美国呀美国，这个度不好掌握，掌握不好就是战争！战争过后，就是伊拉克和阿富汗的头痛，非常的头痛！
如果把美国比作行业龙头的话，那么这个行业还是有很多不守规矩的企业，比如说阿富汗，也有试图强大的企业，比如中国和印度，美国做的是武林盟主，这个武林盟主需要结盟，但是结的太多了又有失身份，也降低自己的话语权
行业龙头从来都是轮流做的。
My Plan for Bad Bank Assets
The private sector will set prices. Taxpayers will share in any upside.
By TIMOTHY GEITHNER wsj
U.S. Rounding Up Investors to Buy Bad Assets
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN, ERIC DASH and RACHEL L. SWARNS nyt
如果私人不用承担风险，就不应该有风险收益，那他过来掺和什么？
如果私人不用承担风险，也有风险收益，那纳税人不答应！so what?那还要他们干什么!
现在的toxic asset 的问题是没有市场，那就给它一个市场，政府！拍卖也行，就是不好操作呀，但是还是要操作呀。
暂时国有化不是一个选择吗？
Stimulus Dilemma for China
Spending on Public Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse
According to China's industry ministry, as of this month about 30% of the nation's aluminum production capacity is idle, as is 20% of cement and plate-glass capacity and 70% of semiconductor production.
而这些消费者都不知道，现在你知道危机是怎么产生的了吧，是企业集体的无知、冒进、管理失误、弱智、贪婪……这种集体性事件发生概率很低，但隔些年就会发生，trigger它的原因是政府和舆论不自由。
China's crude steel-making capacity reached 660 million tons at the end of 2008, but production was only about 500 million tons. The draft plan for the steel industry calls for eliminating 25 million tons of capacity by 2011, only a small fraction of the gap.
The country has the capacity to produce about 12 million automobiles a year, but only 9.37 million were sold in 2008.
现在的政府管理者几乎都是计划经济的管理逻辑，因为权力太大又没约束，对经济干预很深的。他们认为，只要计划好，需求和供给上一个台阶只是时间问题!
一、即使需求可以被计划，但是官员能计划好吗？一次计划好，能保证每次都计划好吗？
二、如果说人的真实需求，或曰市场的真实需求根本无法计划和强制，那么这种家长制发展模式是否真的有用？
the reform of education in us
The reform camp is driven partly by research suggesting that great teachers are far more important to student learning than class size, school resources or anything else. One study suggests that if black kids could get teachers from the profession’s most effective quartile for four years in a row, the achievement gap would disappear.
As a result, Ms. Rhee has proposed that teachers surrender some job protections in exchange for the chance to earn more money — up to $131,000 annually, more than double the average salary for an American public school teacher. But teachers worry, not unreasonably, that their performance is difficult to measure, that they will be judged by incompetent principals, and that promised bonuses may later dry up. For now the two sides seem stalemated.
市场跑哪去了！？
A better way to fix the banks
Here’s a plan that could solve the toxic-asset pricing problem voluntarily—without requiring Uncle Sam to nationalize the whole industry—and make (pretty much) everyone a winner.
2009年3月22日星期日
Now Is No Time to Give Up on Markets
Still, there remain many good reasons to continue the struggle against the current trend, Mr. Becker says. "When the market economy is compared to alternatives, nothing is better at raising productivity, reducing poverty, improving health and integrating the people of the world."
政府，无论是西方学者认为的还是中国认为的，都是一种选择，在人们面对危机或者发生不好的事情的时候，一定会想到让政府来干预。
经济学是一门研究选择的学科。在政府和市场之间的选择一直都是一个话题。现在是危机了，选择政府会怎样呢？
一、经济可能复苏
一、经济可能复苏
二、政府更加庞大，官僚主义更加多，人民赋税更加多
三、寻租更加多，公平机会更加少
四、在经济好时，人们会容忍这些，在经济不好时，政府又不能稳定局势，就会乱起来。
选择市场：
一、经济肯定会复苏，时间长短未知
一、经济肯定会复苏，时间长短未知
二、社会上出现一些问题，说明没有市场去解决，要引入市场，这必须有政府的介入
三、市场需要民主的政府
put lend interet under zero!how dare you say that!
then ,the deposit interet will be under zero too, that's a tax burden on all the people with cash!
经济危机逼出来的想法。在一个分工工业化社会里，如果大家没有了交换的情绪，这个社会将分崩离析，而且将回到自给自足的农业文明，或者自给自足的工业文明？
西方学者应该接受的另一个学说
I“政府，剥削提供商；国家属于官僚”
II“政府，公共品提供商；国家属于人民”，这是西方学说的逻辑起点，但是这不符合中国的现实。
如果你接受I为逻辑起点，社会照样能运行的。公共经济学照样可以发展出一个体系来。这个体系的核心矛盾就是：剥削阶级太嚣张，被另一个剥削阶级取代，这个基本平衡形成了这个学说的基石。
搜索论文就两步
1、在Google scholar搜，找到目标论文
2、复制搜索结果的“作者”、“论文题目”、“期刊（时间）”，在学校图书馆入口进入有权限的数据库搜索，可以是jstor，可以是sciencedirect，可以是ebscohost，有时搜索“期刊（时间）”是最有效果的！
russia's rule of lawlessness
这是显然的
我们希望的是有一个不断进步的机制。
法制化需要几个条件：
一、公民的法律意识，这需要一代的教育
一、公民的法律意识，这需要一代的教育
二、法律、社会对自由和民主的拥护，只有这样，才能防止官僚主义对法治的侵蚀！
三、舆论的自由
当法律的执行是由官吏进行时，这种法治不可取，只会成为官吏压迫和玩弄人民的工具而已。只有当公民具备法律意识时，他看到违法的事情才会主动去举报，通过民主的监督，一个可以遏制官僚主义，一个可以保证法制社会的形成。
管理学基本原理告诉我们，机构太大无法合理的管理，这点在中国的社会实在明显不过了，针对这种情况，只有一个办法：化整为零，让一部分人监督一部分官吏，这就是民主的雏形，当然必须加上自由、法制才行。这种情况下，中央担心中国的混乱，那美国为什么没有混乱呢？因为它的宪法摆在那呢，你可以州自治，但是不得脱出美利坚合众国！因为它的法制化，如果光有法而不去实施，而是由官僚去实施，没有三权分立，即使有完善的宪法，都是扯淡。
这些道理不想讲了，中央都知道，现在就缺一个有魄力的人呀！
Why Foreign Aid Is Hurting Africa
Money from rich countries has trapped many African nations in a cycle of corruption, slower economic growth and poverty. Cutting off the flow would be far more beneficial, says Dambisa Moyo.
2009年3月21日星期六
David Brooks、Paul Krugman、Greg Mankiw都说奥巴马做得不好，但是借口不一样！
In normal times, leaders like to focus on the short term at the expense of the long term. But now the short term is really confusing, so leaders take refuge in projects that are years or decades away.
But the G-20 process is heading toward global impotence because the Europeans aredismissing this approach. Instead, they want to spend this moment of peril working on a long-term architecture to regulate global finance. The world is in flames and they want directorates and multilateral symposia and vague plans for a powerless “college ofsupervisors.” This is what Marie Antoinette would be for if she were an annual Davos attendee.
Paul Krugman认为政府花的钱不够；Greg Mankiw认为政府做得不对。
2009年3月20日星期五
塔利班和游击队
似乎美国又换了一种方式对付塔利班了
如果美国能够从中国的游击队身上学到一点经验就不错了。
这就好比企业间竞争，美国作为行业老大，看到塔利班不按行规行事，故意压低卖价之类的，就试图去取缔它。如果你照搬书本的话，企业的起落是由消费者决定的，那就错了。
House Passes Heavy Tax on Bonuses at Rescued Firms
这在中国是无法想象的。
中国的历史是这样的：
……君主英明，不打扰生产，国富民强……君主昏暗，官场腐败，民不聊生，国库空虚……
家长负责制就是这样，官吏根本不好管
而西方式的自由、民主，真的就不会制造退步吗？
民主是一个过程。
2009年3月19日星期四
Would an AIG-Bonus Tax Pass Constitutional Muster? (A Tribe Calls ‘Yes!’)
It’s the puzzle of the week down in Washington: how to get the money back from the AIG bonus-recipients. As we’ve written before, the Obama administration seems inclined not to play legal hardball for a variety of reasons, one of which seems to be that it could wind up on the hook for more than it would stand to recover.
The most current proposal: tax the bejeezus out of the recipients. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and other congressional Democrats have proposed a 91 percent tax. There are problems with this, too. The NYT writes that some of the AIG employees are thought to be foreigners based in offices abroad and not liable for U.S. taxes.
But could such a tax also run into Constitutional problems? Some pundits (for example, here and here) have suggested yes. The most commonly mentioned difficulties include the prohibitions on so-called Bills of Attainder and retroactive laws (laws passed Ex Post Facto) mentioned in Article I, Section 9 of the Constitution. Other possible problems brought to our attention deal with the Contract Clause of the Article I, Section 10; the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment; and the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment.
For a little help with this, we turned to Harvard’s Laurence Tribe, he of the canonized treatise “American Constitutional Law.” In an email exchange, we asked Tribe to address each of the five possible constitutional problems and he determined none of them likely poses a problem.
Bill of Attainder: Article I, Section 9 of the Constitution prohibits Congress from passing Bills of Attainder, laws that punish a single person or specific group of people without affording them a trial. Would a law that targeted AIG executives violate the prohibition on Bills of Attainder?
Responded Tribe:
I do think Congress (and the Executive Branch) could avoid serious Bill of Attainder problems by passing a sufficiently broad law … rather than targeting a closed class of named executives even though the prohibition against Bills of Attainder, unlike that against Ex Post Facto laws, potentially reaches civil as well as criminal penalties.
Ex Post Facto: Article I, Section 9 of the Constitution also, generally speaking, prohibits Congress from passing laws that apply retroactively. Would a law that imposed a tax on past-gotten earnings violate the Ex Post Facto Clause?
Responded Tribe:
The Ex Post Facto Clause applies exclusively to criminal punishment and poses no difficulty here. And the fact that the measure contemplated would operate retroactively as well as prospectively doesn’t distinguish it from any number of tax and other financial measures that the Supreme Court has upheld over the claim that fundamental fairness precludes retroactively undoing contractual obligations.
The Contract Clause: Article 1, Section 10 of the Constitution states: “No state shall . . . pass any Law . . . impairing the Obligation of Contracts.” Now, what about this? With the passage of the law, wouldn’t the government effectively be impairing contracts made between AIG and its executives?
Tribe had a quick dispatch for the ol’ Contract Clause:
The Contract Impairment Clause applies exclusively to state legislation and has no federal counterpart that would pose any difficulty in this setting.
The Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment: The Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment states: “No person shall be . . . deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.”
On the issue of procedural due process — generally speaking, on whether a person is given adequate access to the legal system and its procedures — Tribe said this also isn’t a problem.
There’s no suggestion that people would be targeted for payback obligations without notice and a fair opportunity to be heard on questions such as mistaken identity, so procedural due process would be satisfied.
On the issue of substantive due process — that is, whether a “liberty” has been taken away by a given act of Congress — Tribe said:
And, as to substantive due process, the only relevant requirement would be that the challenged measure be rationally calculated to achieve a legitimate government purpose, something nobody could deny in this instance.
The Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment: The Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment states: ” . . . nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.” The clause is the one that requires payment for property “taken” by the government’s eminent domain power — the power to, say, grab a piece of property to build a public road. In response to our question on whether tax on AIG executives might constitute an unconstitutional “taking,” Tribe responded:
Tax measures [generally speaking] are simply not vulnerable to challenge under the Takings Clause. . . The point of the Takings Clause is to require compensation for the fair market value of private property validly confiscated for the public’s benefit, not to prevent the exaction of a tax that Congress is within its constitutional authority to impose.
The Daily Me
When we go online, each of us is our own editor, our own gatekeeper. We select the kind of news and opinions that we care most about.
Nicholas Negroponte of M.I.T. has called this emerging news product The Daily Me. And if that’s the trend, God save us from ourselves.
market myopia
QQ,你以为人们一定需要QQ吗？其实，我们需要的只是和朋友的交流，只是信息的传播，如果出现更好的方式，我们会弃你而去的。
browser，你以为我们真的是需要browser吗？我们是只是需要一种工具使我们到达目的资源点，你相当于车，但是出现飞机的时候，我们会弃你而去的。
Google，你以为我们会一直使用你吗？我们只是需要一条去网站的路而已，当飞机出现的时候，我们将不再需要路
网站导航，你以为我们会离不开你吗？我们只是需要网上资源的地图而已，当更好的指引方式出现的时候，我们会弃你而去。
……
Study Shows First-Time Online Donors Often Do Not Return
People who go online to donate to charity for the first time often do not return to the Internet to make later gifts, according to a newstudy examining the experience of 24 nonprofit groups.
The findings suggest that while the Internet can be a valuable fund-raising tool for charities, particularly in soliciting gifts after disasters like Hurricane Katrina, it is not a replacement for direct mail or other forms of fund-raising.
“Online giving is higher than offline giving, and the demographics of online givers are more attractive — better educated, higher income,” said Tobias Smith, director of online communications at CARE, which took part in the study and works on issues faced by poor women. “But how you get people to routinely give online is a nut no one has yet cracked.”
The study was done by Target Analytics, a unit of Blackbaud Inc., which provides software and services to nonprofit groups.
The most important change Congress can make is to require universal voter registration. That would put the burden on states to register eligible voters — identifying them from other government lists such as tax and motor vehicle databases — rather than forcing prospective voters to navigate the obstacle-ridden path to the voting rolls. States should also be required to make registration permanent so voters are not purged from the rolls because of a move to a new address or a name change.
为什么美国没有网址导航？
因为，他们没有这方面的需要？
因为，他们没有表达这方面的需要？
因为，他们没有满足这方面的需要？
网上有很多资源，基本上是对线下资源的表达：哪本书不错，那个餐馆不错，那个地方不错，一些生活知识，……
可不可以有一个平台，专门表达线上资源：哪个网站在什么方面做得好，哪个网站在其他方面做得很烂，……
2009年3月18日星期三
Is Obamanomics Conservative or Revolutionary?
There are two ways to see Obamanomics.
So there we have it: Obamanomics as pragmatic, incremental, centrist, even conservative.
But there's another way to view Obamanomics -- as an economic philosophy exactly the opposite of the one that's dominated America for more than a quarter century.
The basic idea of Reaganomics was that the economy grows from the top down. Lower taxes on the wealthy make them work harder and invest more, and the benefits trickle down to everyone else. Rarely in economic history has a theory been more tested in the real world and proven so wrong. In point of fact, nothing trickled down. After the Reagan tax cuts, increases in the median wage slowed, adjusted for inflation. After George W. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy, the median wage actually dropped. Meanwhile, most of the income went to the top. In 1980, just before the Reagan revolution, the richest 1 percent took home 9 percent of total national income. But by 2007, the richest 1 percent was taking home 22 percent.
The basic idea of Reaganomics was that the economy grows from the top down. Lower taxes on the wealthy make them work harder and invest more, and the benefits trickle down to everyone else. Rarely in economic history has a theory been more tested in the real world and proven so wrong. In point of fact, nothing trickled down. After the Reagan tax cuts, increases in the median wage slowed, adjusted for inflation. After George W. Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy, the median wage actually dropped. Meanwhile, most of the income went to the top. In 1980, just before the Reagan revolution, the richest 1 percent took home 9 percent of total national income. But by 2007, the richest 1 percent was taking home 22 percent.
If you look only at the small print, Obamanomics looks conservative. If you look at the big picture, it's revolutionary.
马克思主义者在笑，而马克思在哭。老实说，如果没有政府强制财富再分配，资本主义早灭亡了。
2009年3月17日星期二
The Commercial Republic
Over the centuries, the United States has been most conspicuous forone trait: manic energy. Americans work longer hours than any other people. We switch jobs more frequently, move more often, earn more and consume more.
In short, the United States will never be Europe. It was born as a commercial republic. It’s addicted to the pace of commercial enterprise. After periodic pauses, the country inevitably returns to its elemental nature.
Walt Whitman got America right in his essay, “Democratic Vistas.” He acknowledged the vulgarity of the American success drive. He toted up its moral failings. But in the end, he accepted his country’s “extreme business energy,” its “almost maniacal appetite for wealth.” He knew that the country’s dreams were all built upon that energy and drive, and eventually the spirit of commercial optimism would always prevail.
revolution
赤壁和试错法
赤壁的经典语录何其多！
很多人都说，吴宇森拍得赤壁简直不像话，中国导演难道就怕不出来经典的战争片吗？但是它的票房却很高，似乎和试错法不符合。
第一，很多人说的话不可信的，说不好看，但还是去看了
第二，试错法有效与否有几个条件：是否先入为主（而赤壁却是如此，大牌导演和明星）；上当受骗的人是否愿意和别人分享经历（毕竟像这种电影----一次性消费的东西，需要传播才能阻止更懂的人上当受骗）
不管怎么说，可能还是有很人多觉得赤壁好看，可能试错法对于一次性消费的东西不感冒，赤壁还算是一个成功的片子。
我感兴趣的是：下次吴宇森的片子还会有如此多的票房吗？
我独喜欢这句：
周瑜：厉害，看来制造军械，你也略懂。
诸葛亮：什么都略懂一点，生活就多彩一些。
诸葛亮：什么都略懂一点，生活就多彩一些。
非常个案 中船重工调节利润
经过一系列审计程序之后，中国船舶重工集团公司 (下称 “中船重工”)2008年财务报告形成在即，此时，一则据称是“来自上级政府部门”的通知使得这一收尾工作被迫延后。
参与中船重工年报审计的注册会计师3月12日对本报称，中船重工突然通知先不要出审计报告，2008年的利润要调低一点。刚开始以为这是中船重工内部的决策，但随后他被告知：这是“上级”的要求，“2009年是个困难的年份，把国企2008年的利润调低一点是为2009年继续保持增长打下基础”。
这不是个案。“同行的一些其他注册会计也遇到了类似的情况。”这位注册会计师称
上述注册会计师称，国企的利润最讲究艺术，做低了不行，达不到考核的要求，做高了也不行，还要为下一年的增长留下余地。
2009年3月15日星期日
My New Twitter Flock
After I wrote about Twitter last week, I went almost overnight from feeling like no one was listening to having 1,683 followers.
My large flock of followers, or people who signed up to receive my Twitter messages, showed me that Twitter wasn't just people shouting into a virtual abyss. Actual conversations were going on. Members of my newfound audience were soon sending me messages, or tweets, constantly, letting me know they welcomed, expected and wanted my feedback. It was part of being part of a community, they said.
I realized Twitter -- the mass text-messaging service that lets you send out 140-character messages to a group of followers -- wasn't just about broadcasting. While I had held off replying to people in the past for fear my replies would be viewed as spam since they hit everyone, my new flock was telling me to start hitting reply all.
2009年3月14日星期六
The Rules Apply To Everyone
The Elliot Spitzer phenomenon is part of being human. For whatever reason, people who obtain power can convince themselves that the very rules they create and enforce don’t apply to them. Elliot Spitzer and his prostitutes. Al Gore flying carbon-spewing private jets. Countless others. Whether the transgressions are large or small, something clicks inside the brain of some people or entities who’ve obtained power and they convince themselves they are above the rules.
Smart Management for Tough Times
Breakthrough management ideas for a world in which the game will never be the same
We have organized these ideas into the three areas we believe reflect top priorities for business right now—strategies for driving growth, methods for managing talent, and ideas for improving relationships with customers and suppliers. We profile game-changing managers—the people making an impact with radical ideas. And we highlight blue-sky concepts that might one day alter how business is done.
Reading the Body Language of Leadership
Researchers at MIT are focusing the latest sensor technology on the physical traits of leadership
While MIT's methods are beyond the technical range of most companies, the science of human behavior is becoming more accessible to everyone. A host of everyday technologies from Web cams to corporate IDs with radio tags can provide ever richer behavioral data. Companies may soon be able to size up both employees and job applicants—not only by experience and skills but also by the nature of their inner ape.
2009年3月13日星期五
They Tried to Outsmart Wall Street
As Dr. Derman put it in his book “My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance,” “In physics there may one day be a Theory of Everything; in finance and the social sciences, you’re lucky if there is a useable theory of anything.”
Wal-Mart Plans to Market Digital Health Records System
The company plans to team its Sam’s Club division with Dell for computers and eClinicalWorks, a fast-growing private company, for software. Wal-Mart says its package deal of hardware, software, installation, maintenance and training will make the technology more accessible and affordable, undercutting rival health information technology suppliers by as much as half
大家应该听过云计划，初衷是统筹运用资源，但是可以借鉴到这，农民等人不是不会装系统不会装软件吗，不是不会打字吗，完全可以通过云计划来一个规模效应。
大家应该听过云计划，初衷是统筹运用资源，但是可以借鉴到这，农民等人不是不会装系统不会装软件吗，不是不会打字吗，完全可以通过云计划来一个规模效应。
Capitalism Beyond the Crisis
By Amartya Sen
The present economic crises do not, I would argue, call for a "new capitalism," but they do demand a new understanding of older ideas, such as those of Smith and, nearer our time, of Pigou, many of which have been sadly neglected. What is also needed is a clearheaded perception of how different institutions actually work, and of how a variety of organizations—from the market to the institutions of the state—can go beyond short-term solutions and contribute to producing a more decent economic world.
www.4trillion.com
温总理在记者招待会上语重心长地说，说什么好呢？
总理说，我们一定公开花这4万亿rmb，然后抛出一个网站，www.4trillion.com
奥巴马说，我们一定花好这7870亿dollar，然后抛出一个网站，www.change.gov
Smart Grids for Smart Energy Marketing
So how would such a market for energy goods work? The smart grid would connect to a home-energy monitoring system, and potentially to the Internet, to connect information about energy devices and consumption. The homeowner would be alerted by the utility or third-party vendor via text message, e-mail, or a smart-energy dashboard that, say, a connected washing machine is expending more energy than usual, then be presented with options for buying a new one. Because the power grid is already a network, using information technology, it can connect with already available communication networks, or connect with yet-to-be-created ones.
2009年3月11日星期三
In Afghanistan, Less Can Be More
This is not a war we can win ourselves; the Afghans are going to have to win it by fightingto retake their own country from both Taliban thugs and corrupt government officials.While additional American troops may be an unavoidable necessity to provide security inthe short and medium term, we should never forget that doing too much for a weak allycan be just as bad as doing too little.
美国人，这种教训可以从老挝获得，也可以从你们在中国的失败中获得。
2009年3月10日星期二
2009年3月9日星期一
How to Twitter
The social rules and tips for gaining 'followers'; why opinionated people win
It's not about chatting with your friends -- it's about promoting yourself.
"Twitter is fundamentally a broadcast system."
As a result, Twitter makes for very good people watching -- even if you don't go home with anyone you meet there.
the term follower "is more honest than friend."
2009年3月8日星期日
三条标准“丈量”居民企业 假外资难了
据本报了解，目前已经有诸多外企争相寻找会计师事务所或者律师事务所重新设计控股结构和收入结构，希望能够未雨绸缪，避免成为中国居民企业。
另有业内人士指出《办法》认定居民企业的条款过于苛刻，不具有实际操作性，在实际认定中容易造成理解上的分歧，甚至摩擦。例如，《办法》中对于企业的50%以上的经营收入来源于中国境内的说法过于模糊，税收机关很容易做出一个宽泛的解释，或将不利于国际贸易的正常开展。
真的很难。
家电下乡，资源扭曲配置
家电下乡，部分农民高兴。
家电下乡，具有销售资格的店和产品高兴。
家电下乡，部分城市户口人也高兴，可以去乡下借户口买东西。
家电下乡，大部分城市户口应该不高兴，但是看到大家都是一样交税，或者说不知道自己交了税（消费者不知道的，只有老板知道），也这么算了。
第一，家电下乡，由政府决定谁有资格，而不是市场，虽然快速，但是效果不好。
第二，家电下乡，类似电脑的产品，引诱农民买完全是资源的一种浪费，电脑的很多资源农民都用不来，而且网费那么贵，政府的激励其实扭曲了市场的配置，错误的引诱了农民的需求，因为正常状态下，农民没有电脑需求，是不会来买电脑的。
第三，摩托车、电视等在乡下都比较普遍了。激励再买很多是浪费资源。
在和一个商人谈到这些缺点时，他说，你这么说，大部分中国人都会说你傻的。有钱赚，哪有那么多道理
商人，只是为利而行，如果你政府错误的引诱，会产生灾难性的后果的。
市场，才是真正能体现人的需求，产生的资源配置也是对消费者来说福利最大的。
主板涨、硬盘涨……
在经济危机下为什么还会涨呢？
我从南昌的第一层经销商核实了一下，确实有这回事。
可能是个别厂商的行为，这是我的第一个解释。
可能是因为经济危机并没有影响到国内市场，特别是主营业务是面对国内的企业，这是我的第二个解释，但是我觉得这又不对，随着各大电脑商在西方市场的损失，他们应该会向国内市场塞更多的供给。
所以，我的第三种解释是，要降的，升只是暂时的，不是市场的原因，而是比如成本，库存等的原因
第四种解释是，经济危机并没有影响到电脑市场，但是又不对。可能是家电下乡的影响？
第五种解释是，厂家的预期战术，自以为可以战胜市场，自己先提高价格，给消费者一个向上涨的预期，但是这种伎俩会被三种力量打破：普降的CPI、舆论、竞争对手的撑不住。
不管怎么解释，我的预期是，这种上涨是暂时的。
2009年3月7日星期六
重申smartout.cn
我曾经说，smartout.cn是一个单机和网络合并的完全分析电脑用户线上生活的网站和工具，不管是浏览网页，听音乐，聊天，玩游戏，炒股，发邮件，发呆，看电影，……
硅谷有很多startups,他们都试图在互联网赚钱。有搜索，而搜索是网络上的路，有专门开发小工具的，有专门分析网民的评论的，有在不同平台分享信息的工具，有……
而smartout.cn是完全分析电脑用户的线上生活，为其分析，而不仅仅是记录而已。
而记录也是人性化记录，不是说你QQ开一天，你就聊了一天的天，不是你的网页打开在那，你就看了，不是你的酷狗开了，你就在听歌，……不是你打开学习网站，你就在学习，不是你在Google里搜一个“铝”，你就对铝感兴趣，不是你在facebook的资料里说你喜欢钓鱼你就真的喜欢钓鱼，不是你在twitter里写了你喜欢神舟或讨厌神舟你就真讨厌神舟，不是你在论坛里灌水说你崇拜刘德华你就真的会买他的专辑，参加他的演唱会，……
说的，写的，听到，看的，搜的，做的……要一致才是真的。
china economy tops NPC agenda
China Lawmakers Gather, With an Eye on Fixing Economy
竞争不公平，贫富差距，贪污腐败，社会治安，民主政治，官吏官吏，法治，……
这些显然被经济绑架了，说是留给后人来解决。但是，但一有什么手术的时候，老板就会关闭机器来绑架政治。
On the Web, No One Can Hear You Scream
I can see this from the side of the Web companies. Internet business are built on scale, making a little bit of money by doing something for millions ofpeople in an automated way. Once a human being needs to actually talk to ahuman being, the profits (if any) from that customer may be gone forever.
direct market
Google、facebook、twitter、widget都说自己要做网络direct market.
野心很大。效果不好说。拿Google为例，通过搜索你就知道网民喜欢什么？扯淡。facebook，网民在网上写的一些资料加的一些好友就能推测出用户的喜好，扯淡。
www.smartout.cn 真正分析电脑用户在电脑上的活动，这才是direct market。
2009年3月6日星期五
声音
文字、图片、视频（有声音）都已经开发得很火热了，不管是web1.0的门户时代，还是web2.0的博客、微博客时代。
唯一抛弃的就是单纯的声音。网上仅有的就是一些山寨音乐分享网站。
其实，中国还是有很多40岁以上的人不会打字的，但是他们能说。
http://www.sayblog.com/是一个好的开始但是没有普及。它是通过电话把声音传到网上去。
确实缺少硬件，视频有摄像头。而声音有……电话筒？
在听的时候，网页上可以放广告。
2009年3月5日星期四
集团业务 PK 个人业务
联想政府公关做得好，政府采购多。但是，我们说集团业务不仅包括政府，还包括企业等单位。集团业务的优势在于，单个产品的销售成本低，维护成本低。联想电脑的价格空间大，也是其受欢迎的一个原因。
而个人业务却很难做。
政府这个怪东西。
http://www.myngle.com/ 网上学习语言 网络教育的新起点，web2.0?
这么多的SNS网站，如果有一个工具，可以在网上的任何一个地方把内容分享到自己的SNS中那就好了。不用工具自己和哪个网站接触，因为网站是一直在更新的，而且用户有自己特别的网站。
2009年3月4日星期三
Facebook Connect + Facebook Ads = A Social Ad Network
socially-targeted ads is the next evolutionary step in online advertising. it is only a matter of when, not if, it will occur.
Citigroup Chair Says Bankers Will Keep it Simple
“I’m asked quite often, are institutions too large to manage? What is undoubtedly true is that large institutions — complex institutions — require superior management,” Bischoff said. “You need rules that have stood the test of time. What we have seen is institutions that aren’t necessarily too large, but that have become very complex.” “It is possible to have big banks,” Malladi said. “It is possible to have unified global institutions as long as there’s a way to manage all this complexity.”
“We should keep in mind the difference between market mistakes and market failure.” Actions will have to be sorted through to see which require public policy interventions and which don’t, he said, noting that a useful guide might be to determine whether or not people have learned from their mistakes or whether they will repeat them.
Bischoff predicted: “Regulation may change, and that may actually help in terms of transparency.”
2009年3月2日星期一
Card Issuers: How Can We Make You Go Away?
With defaults on the rise, credit-card issuers are employing all sorts of tactics to persuade consumers to reduce their balances and, ideally, close their accounts. Some issuers are using carrots: American Express is offering some cardholders a $300 gift certificate if they zero out their balance by April 30, and Citibank is offering to match a portion of the payments some cardholders make beyond the minimum amount due. Others are using sticks: Chase is tacking on a $10 monthly fee to the accounts of consumers who have carried a large balance for more than two years.
向传统自由市场交换经济理论调整or只是班门弄斧
本来，市场是有均衡力量的，不会出现太多的跳动。但是现实却不一样，不管是金融市场还是产品市场！
金融市场，很好理解，不完全竞争的，政府控制的，信息不对称的，对货币的需求有投资需求和消费。
金融市场，很好理解，不完全竞争的，政府控制的，信息不对称的，对货币的需求有投资需求和消费。
产品市场，其实也有两种需求，投资和消费。前者是由商人引起的，而这个是引起市场波动的原因，因为他们的思考逻辑不是真实需求，而是“我5元买来，8元卖出”
而真正的消费需求才是真正调节市场的唯一合理力量。
传统的观点，把商人的利润看着是一种交易成本而已。
这就是为什么，中国的封建社会会看不起商人。
2009年3月1日星期日
Franklin Delano Obama
Most presidents are tacticians, but President Obama is a strategist Mr. Obama will be able to move the country toward a national health care system. If he can lead us there, even gradually, he has a chance to join the pantheon of truly great presidents like F.D.R. himself. 保险业真的没有意思呀，是医疗体系的未来吗？美国证明了失败。
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