Fed study puts ideal interest rate at -5%
The ideal interest rate for the US economy in current conditions would be minus 5 per cent, according to internal analysis prepared for the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting.The analysis was based on a so-called Taylor-rule approach that estimates an appropriate interest rate based on unemployment and inflation.
A central bank cannot cut interest rates below zero. However, the staff research suggests the Fed should maintain unconventional policies that provide stimulus roughly equivalent to an interest rate of minus 5 per cent.
2009年4月28日星期二
Fed staff goes negative
The FT reports:
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Taylor-rule
回复删除斯坦福大学的约翰.泰勒于１９９３年根据美国货币政策的实际经验，而确定的一种短期利率调整的规则
联邦基金利率=通货膨胀率+均衡实际联邦基金利率+1/2（通货膨胀缺口）+1/2（产出缺口）
可以看出，现在通胀为负、通胀缺口为负、产出缺口为负，差不多联邦基准利率就要为负了。