2009年4月19日星期日

It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative

The idea of negative interest rates may strike some people as absurd, the concoction ofsome impractical theorist. Perhaps it is. But remember this: Early mathematicians thought that the idea of negative numbers was absurd. Today, these numbers are commonplace. Even children can be taught that some problems (such as 2x + 6 = 0) have no solution unless you are ready to invoke negative numbers.

Maybe some economic problems require the same trick.

N. Gregory Mankiw is a professor of economics at Harvard. He was an adviser to President George W. Bush.

第一、贷款利率为负,存款利率也会为负,那存款的人将把钱全部取出的。有人会说,在名义利率为零,通缩的情况下,实际利率不照样为负,为啥子不取钱,那是因为现实中的人有几人知道呢?另一方面是,你贷款利率为负,大家都会去贷款,银行是没有存款,只有贷款,会被抽空的,这下真没银行了。

第二,美元存贷利率为负,我想资金会外逃吧,机会成本。就是说银行外资金外逃。

第三,如果控制在一定的“量”内(边际作用),还是不会发生“质”变的,但美联储敢冒这个险吗?

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