AP

The stock market could still recover as unemployment remains high. Wall Street will just want some signs that the prospects for the labor market aren’t getting far worse. In downturns during the past 60 years, the S&P 500 index has hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak.

也就是说，历史表明，如果标普500连续升了，你就去回找它的最低点，设此时刻为t，就知道GDP在t+4后会触底，失业率在t+9后会触顶。