When Consumers Cut Back: A Lesson From Japan

The economic malaise that plagued Japan from the 1990s until the early 2000s brought stunted wages and depressed stock prices, turning free-spending consumers into misers and making them dead weight on Japan’s economy.

To better compete, companies slashed jobs and wages, replacing much of their work force with temporary workers who had no job security and fewer benefits. Nontraditional workers now make up more than a third of Japan’s labor force.

Economists blame this slow spending on widespread distrust of Japan’s pension system, which is buckling under the weight of one of the world’s most rapidly aging societies. That could serve as a warning for the United States, where workers’ 401(k)’s have been ravaged by declining stocks, pensions are disappearing, and the long-term solvency of the Social Security system is in question.

Economists say deflation could interfere with the two trillion yen ($21 billion) in cash handouts that the Japanese government is planning, because consumers might save theextra money on the hunch that it will be more valuable in the future than it is now.

The same fear grips many economists and policymakers in the United States. “Deflation is a real risk facing the economy,” President Obama’s chief economic adviser, Lawrence H. Summers, told reporters this month.

消费，居然成为经济不增长的原因。让我们退回人类刚开始从事生产的时候，那个时候生产力落后，供小于需，生产能力是制约生产的因素；现在发展了，生产力上来了，即使满足全人类的需求，生产还是跟得上，问题是生产就是不起来。经济学家给出的解答是，需求上不来。

为什么需求要上来呢？我奶奶就是一个需求非常简单的人。所以，现代经济是由野心驱动的。需求上不来，是因为普通老百姓对于未来不确定性的恐惧，防卫。这些特点，是自由市场经济的基因。

自由市场经济，强调政府不干预，好的时候不烦你，差的时候也不帮你。这是不符合人类的本性的。当初人开始组建氏族的时候，就是为了团结起来，靠组织帮助自己抵御恐怖的大自然。

或许，我们改想想计划经济的好了。