Stimulus Dilemma for China

Spending on Public Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse

According to China's industry ministry, as of this month about 30% of the nation's aluminum production capacity is idle, as is 20% of cement and plate-glass capacity and 70% of semiconductor production.

而这些消费者都不知道，现在你知道危机是怎么产生的了吧，是企业集体的无知、冒进、管理失误、弱智、贪婪……这种集体性事件发生概率很低，但隔些年就会发生，trigger它的原因是政府和舆论不自由。

China's crude steel-making capacity reached 660 million tons at the end of 2008, but production was only about 500 million tons. The draft plan for the steel industry calls for eliminating 25 million tons of capacity by 2011, only a small fraction of the gap.

The country has the capacity to produce about 12 million automobiles a year, but only 9.37 million were sold in 2008.

现在的政府管理者几乎都是计划经济的管理逻辑，因为权力太大又没约束，对经济干预很深的。他们认为，只要计划好，需求和供给上一个台阶只是时间问题!

一、即使需求可以被计划，但是官员能计划好吗？一次计划好，能保证每次都计划好吗？

二、如果说人的真实需求，或曰市场的真实需求根本无法计划和强制，那么这种家长制发展模式是否真的有用？