2009年3月30日星期一

p-p-p

public-private-plan
eh^
我不知道为什么美国人就是这么傻。美国的国会肯定出了问题!
不管什么计划嘛,肯定对这些资产不好定价了。即使是PPP计划,还是有空子可以钻:
一、银行自己的hedge funds去竞购toxic asset,那么这些资本肯定会被抬到很高的价格
二、市场下,谁都上过当,高价买了差的东西,唯一的原因就是信息不对称,现在就是。
既然无法定价,就不要定价。政府把这些坏资产按明细收过来,暂时给银行一定的价格(P1)和贷款,让银行先动起来。
当经济好的时候,资产价格可以卖为P2,资产可以分几类了:
一、P1>P2,银行还钱给政府
二、
三、
首先,银行需快速运转起来
其次,这些资产如果价值不确定的话,就是信息不对称,信息不对称的柠檬资产到市场上去是不负责的表现
第三,政府把它拿过来不要想着去赚钱的。心态就是亏的,但是我们不要想去让接受的私人亏,这个不道德的。让整个社会承担,是应该的
第四,意识形态经济学家怕这个计划会造成大政府,以及不可逆性。
第五,人们把钱存在银行,以为没有风险了,那就是错的。
第六,取消银行。或者,禁止银行混业经营,如果说存款人把钱存在银行,就是说银行没有风险的情况下,那么银行就不应该冒风险。连贷款不能发,因为这也是在冒风险。
融资的功能给直接融资市场,因为参加这个市场的人都敢冒风险。

3 条评论:

  1. 如果银行不放贷,那存款人的利息哪去拿
    所以,银行只能是政府来管
    而这个政府,必须是民主的政府
    一旦一届政府无法还款给息,那么这届政府就over了

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  2. The worst-case scenario is that the assets are really worth what the currently illiquid market thinks they are worth. In this case, the Treasury, but in particularly the FDIC, will face enormous losses. Had Paulson applied this strategy in late September, the Treasury would now be facing losses equal to 47%. On a trillion-dollar investment, we are talking about $470 billion in losses.
    The best-case scenario is that the value of the toxic assets bounces back so that the government recovers all its money and the hedge funds become filthy-rich.
    Even in this happy scenario, however, there is a very serious political problem: How would taxpayers react when they find out that those who reap the biggest benefits of this program are the very same people who created this mess to begin with? Because let's realize this now: The most savvy buyers of toxic assets will certainly be those who created them.
    If you think that the revelation of AIG lavish bonuses has shown all the rage of the American people, think again. When former subprime lenders will become the new billionaires, we run the risk of a populist revolution.

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  3. 中国的国有制银行导致了坏账百出,是不是就说,只要是政府管的银行,肯定会出问题
    如果是这样的话,那么银行就不应该存在

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