Fed study puts ideal interest rate at -5%
The ideal interest rate for the US economy in current conditions would be minus 5 per cent, according to internal analysis prepared for the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting.The analysis was based on a so-called Taylor-rule approach that estimates an appropriate interest rate based on unemployment and inflation.
A central bank cannot cut interest rates below zero. However, the staff research suggests the Fed should maintain unconventional policies that provide stimulus roughly equivalent to an interest rate of minus 5 per cent.
2009年4月28日星期二
Fed staff goes negative
The FT reports:
swing flue
SARS or just so so
There have been 40 confirmed swine flu cases, the majority — 28 — associated with a single preparatory school in Queens, some of whose students visited Mexico recently.
Only four states other than New York have confirmed cases: seven in California and one or two in Texas, Ohio and Kansas. The illnesses have all been mild; only one patient was hospitalized and no one has died. Four or five days after seeing the first signs of swine flu in New York City, there is still no evidence that it has spread further.
Where Will the Swine Flu Go Next?：
Influenza pandemics have occurred as far back in history as we can look, but the four we know about in detail happened in 1889, 1918, 1957 and 1968. The mildest of these, the so-called Hong Kong flu in 1968, killed about 35,000 people in the United States and 700,000 worldwide. Ordinary seasonal influenza, in comparison, now kills 36,000 Americans a year, because the population has a higher proportion of elderly people and others with weak immune systems. (If a virus like the Hong Kong flu hit today, it would probably kill more people for the same reason.)
The worst influenza pandemic, in 1918, killed 675,000 in the United States. And although no one has a reliable worldwide death toll, the lowest reasonable number is about 35 million, and some scientists believe it killed as many as 100 million — at a time when the world’s population was only a quarter of what it is today. The dead included not only the elderly and infants but also robust young adults.
What’s important to keep in mind in assessing the threat of the current outbreak is that all four of the well-known pandemics seem to have come in waves.
煽起对金融机构的愤怒！
Workers Walk the Plank
最让人郁闷的是，金融机构的所有者怎么会容忍管理者提高薪水到危机前水平呢，特别是今年！
一个解释是，金融机构管理者很多就是金融机构的所有者，这种提高薪水降低利润从而降低股息的行为其实是在变相侵吞财政部的补助。
Today, he says, people are uneasy. “It was desperate then,” Mr. Newburger says.
He remembers the faces of gentlemen who sold apples on street corners wearing shabby three-piece suits, their gold watch chains long since pawned.
He remembers the families who ate canned dog food.
And he remembers the men who threw themselves from tower windows because they considered their life insurance more valuable to their families than their lives.
Mr. Newburger also says that the current recession and the Great Depression share the same underlying cause: “Greed.”
According to Mr. Newburger, before the Depression people could buy $100 of stock with just $10 in cash, “even if you were the bootblack on the corner.”
Those investors, like the people who during the latest real estate boom bought homes that were beyond their reach, were left holding the bag when the bubble burst.
“It’s exactly the same principle,” Mr. Newburger said, “buying what you couldn’t afford.” He added, “And when the lightning struck the outhouse, it was time to pay the piper.”
Globalism Goes Viral
面对全球性的金融危机、SARS、SWING Flue，我们是需要一个全球性的集权机构，还是分权机构，central organizations or decentralized organizations？
联合国显然做得不够，权力不够。
再说医疗
在欧美剧里，我们看到有人生大病了，不管谁，都不会犹豫去医院的。
精神科 急诊科 口腔科 老年病科
泌尿外科 内分泌科 皮肤性病科 普通外科
神经内科 神经外科 烧伤科 肾脏内科
消化内科 心外科 胸外科 心血管内科
血液科 眼科 营养科 肿瘤科
如果完全按照市场规则，那么肯定会有人看不起病的。
如果完全由政府提供，那么就会出现又一个行政部门，等待时间，服务态度，以及相关产业，将无法创新。
英国就是行政部门形式的，不管看什么病，都不用付钱，可以预见的结果就是，普通人民看病等待时间增加，有关系的人获得更多的资源。这种时间成本和资源不公平配置也算是一种社会成本。
德国和日本的格式差不多，医院、医生和保险机构谈价格，而看病的人不用付钱，但看病的人需买保险。这种模式下，保险机构对任何病都要付钱的，不像中国的保险公司推来推去的。
在行政部门下，药品的采购就会是买方垄断，对于药品的创新势必造成影响，国家出资搞医研。当然，英国也有私有医疗机构，当然是那些不愿等的人，自己直接掏钱看病了。
中国现在完全按行政部门模式，财政拿不出这多多钱？还是先有的制度阻碍改革？中国的改革我忍为可以这样：
第一、一般将疾病的科室分为以下几类
第一、一般将疾病的科室分为以下几类
耳鼻喉科 儿科 妇产科 风湿免疫科
肝胆外科 感染科 骨与创伤科 呼吸内科 精神科 急诊科 口腔科 老年病科
泌尿外科 内分泌科 皮肤性病科 普通外科
神经内科 神经外科 烧伤科 肾脏内科
消化内科 心外科 胸外科 心血管内科
血液科 眼科 营养科 肿瘤科
第二、完全国家提供。私人可以开。这样如果病人等不了，就可以自费去私人。每个人都等待时间的价值认知是不一样的。最后，大家会像骂行政部门一样吗医院吗？英国模式。
第三、现阶段的药厂、医院、药店怎么办？政府公开反拍卖集中采购，由省一级集中。现有的医院给国有化。
第四、或者，我们购买保险，而国家收税补贴保险机构。这样保险机构形成了竞争。而现有的医院等组织照样如此，你可以私有化，也可以国有化。而保险机构和这些服务提供者商量价格。德日模式。在日本，国家也强制要求每个私人医疗机构的收费。这些看似违反市场规则的东西，却能为维持人的生命！
第五、现在的中美模式是，没买保险的（美国有4800万人，中国就更多了），看不起病就看不起病，买了保险的，由于保险机构没有政府补贴，这些保险机构就推三阻四，使中国的保险业成为人人唾骂的行业。
第六、不管哪种模式，核心都是，社会上有钱人和穷人，并不是谁都看得起病。所以，需要有钱人补贴穷人。如果完全按市场，效率是有了，但是穷人真的会病死。这不像买车，买不起宝马的人不会嫉妒死人。中国古代的连坐制，惩罚相干人，互相监督。人类开始的部落，也就是为了团结，互相帮助。有人提议，以社区为单位，形成医疗互助团队。这个是同样的道理，但是它有地域限制。一般一个圈的人都是差不多有钱的，那怎么行呢，没钱的人组成一个医疗互助团队，照样没钱看病。
Shortage of Doctors Proves Obstacle to Obama Goals
美国，这个号称最开放的市场国家，居然缺“primary care doctor",有了需求，居然供给跟不上来，美国商人哪去了？？？
但是，美国的insured people看病的时候，是不直接付钱的。而是保险公司和医生商议价格。可能你会说，病人可以通过保险公司去抬高医生的收费呀。但是，
第一、这么做是需要人组织的，而组织者是需要激励的，谁来激励。
第二、保险公司的垄断力量。
所以，这种事情看来只有政府能做。但是，如果一个没有效率，没有激励和约束的政府，能完成这件事吗？
共和党
And that, I think, is why the Republicans have fallen apart so completely since losing the election. Careerism is what held the party together; an environment in which the party no longer has the patronage to reward all its loyalists, and may not even be able to protect apparatchiks who broke the law, destroys the whole system.
君子群而不党，子曰。
interview of Richard Anderson, chief executive of Delta Air Lines
Q. What was the most important leadership lesson you learned?
A. I’ve learned to be patient and not lose my temper. And the reason that’simportant is everything you do is anexample, and people look ateverything you do and take a signal from everything you do. And when you lose your temper, itreally squelches debate and sends the wrong signal abouthow you want your organization to run. And it was a good lesson. It was a long time ago. And I had a C.E.O. who Iwas very close to, and he just took me aside and gave me areally short instruction about it. And it was a really important instruction.
We have a tendency in these jobs to push really, really hard and want to go really, really fast. Change can’t ever be fast enough. But you do have to be patient enough and make sure that you always remain calm.
2009年4月27日星期一
End the University as We Know It
1. Restructure the curriculum, beginning with graduate programs and proceeding as quickly as possible to undergraduate programs. The division-of-labor model of separate departments is obsolete and must be replaced with a curriculum structured like a web or complex adaptive network. Responsible teaching and scholarship must become cross-disciplinary and cross-cultural.
Just a few weeks ago, I attended a meeting of political scientists who had gathered to discuss why international relations theory had never considered the role of religion in society. Given the state of the world today, this is a significant oversight. There can be no adequate understanding of the most important issues we face when disciplines are cloistered from one another and operate on their own premises.
Consider, for example, a Water program. In the coming decades, water will become a more pressing problem than oil, and the quantity, quality and distribution of water will pose significant scientific, technological and ecological difficulties as well as serious political and economic challenges. These vexing practical problems cannot be adequately addressed without also considering important philosophical, religious and ethical issues. After all, beliefs shape practices as much as practices shape beliefs.
A Water program would bring together people in the humanities, arts, social and natural sciences with representatives from professional schools like medicine, law, business, engineering, social work, theology and architecture. Through the intersection of multiple perspectives and approaches, new theoretical insights will develop and unexpected practical solutions will emerge.
3. Increase collaboration among institutions. All institutions do not need to do all things and technology makes it possible for schools to form partnerships to share students and faculty. Institutions will be able to expand while contracting. Let one college have a strong department in French, for example, and the other a strong department in German; through teleconferencing and the Internet both subjects can be taught at both places with half the staff. With these tools, I have already team-taught semester-long seminars in real time at the Universities of Helsinki and Melbourne.
4. Transform the traditional dissertation. In the arts and humanities, where loomingcutbacks will be most devastating, there is no longer a market for books modeled on the medieval dissertation, with more footnotes than text. As financial pressures on university presses continue to mount, publication of dissertations, and with it scholarly certification, is almost impossible. (The average university press print run of a dissertation that has been converted into a book is less than 500, and sales are usually considerably lower.) For many years, I have taught undergraduate courses in which students do not write traditional papers but develop analytic treatments in formats from hypertext and Web sites to films and video games. Graduate students should likewise be encouraged to produce “theses” in alternative formats.
5. Expand the range of professional options for graduate students. Most graduate students will never hold the kind of job for which they are being trained. It is, therefore, necessary to help them prepare for work in fields other than higher education. The exposure to new approaches and different cultures and the consideration of real-life issues will prepare students for jobs at businesses and nonprofit organizations. Moreover, the knowledge and skills they will cultivate in the new universities will enable them to adapt to a constantly changing world.
6. Impose mandatory retirement and abolish tenure. Initially intended to protect academic freedom, tenure has resulted in institutions with little turnover and professors impervious to change. After all, once tenure has been granted, there is no leverage toencourage a professor to continue to develop professionally or to require him or her toassume responsibilities like administration and student advising. Tenure should bereplaced with seven-year contracts, which, like the programs in which faculty teach, canbe terminated or renewed. This policy would enable colleges and universities to rewardresearchers, scholars and teachers who continue to evolve and remain productive while also making room for young people with new ideas and skills.
For many years, I have told students, “Do not do what I do; rather, take whatever I have to offer and do with it what I could never imagine doing and then come back and tell me about it.” My hope is that colleges and universities will be shaken out of their complacency and will open academia to a future we cannot conceive.
合作？一个经济学家和一个物理学家如何交谈？
Geithner, as Member and Overseer, Forged Ties to Finance Club
The New York Fed is, by custom and design, clubby and opaque. It is charged with curbing banks’ risky impulses, yet its president is selected by and reports to a board dominated by the chief executives of some of those same banks. Traditionally, the New York Fed president’s intelligence-gathering role has involved routine consultation with financiers, though Mr. Geithner’s recent predecessors generally did not meet with them unless senior aides were also present, according to the bank’s former general counsel.
By those standards, Mr. Geithner’s reliance on bankers, hedge fund managers and others to assess the market’s health — and provide guidance once it faltered — stood out.
His calendars from 2007 and 2008 show that those interactions were a mix of the professional and the private.
He ate lunch with senior executives from Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanleyat the Four Seasons restaurant or in their corporate dining rooms. He attended casualdinners at the homes of executives like Jamie Dimon, a member of the New York Fedboard and the chief of JPMorgan Chase.
全球反恐？
美国人到底在想什么？
第一、如果真的是反恐，那么恐怖主义应该是全球的威胁，反恐应该是一个全球性的公共品，没有理由美国人一个国家承担。显然，它也要求别的国家，但是不明显。肯定是，美国人的条件太苛刻，或者根本不想让别的国家参与，只自己参与，在其他国家反来反去，像个世界警察。
第三、中国人要担心的是，巴基斯坦这个盟友止得住诱惑吗？于是，中国也有广交朋友。
第四、美国人郁闷的是，我老大，为啥子基本没有一个国家无条件听话的。历史上即使是罗马大帝都无法达到这种地步。一个人不可能完成每一次交易，出色的。
第四、美国人郁闷的是，我老大，为啥子基本没有一个国家无条件听话的。历史上即使是罗马大帝都无法达到这种地步。一个人不可能完成每一次交易，出色的。
美国人没什么关系中东？特别是以色列
一、中东属于部分美国人的家园。即美籍中东人在作怪。
二、美国人想和中东人做生意，特别是石油生意。所以，保证一个正常生产的中东是合理的。随着新能源的进一步完善，中东的战略位置就会下降？
三、美国人试图控制中东，从而控制全球，因为其拥有大部分的石油。显然它已经控制了沙特阿拉伯。
四、美国人吃饱了没事干，基于意识形态去把美国式民主种植在一个宗教氛围浓厚的中东？
第一、美国控制不了以色列。这就和“一”对应
第二、美国想打伊朗，但是不敢打。现在只有利诱了。想当初中国威风的时候，也时常有外敌自不量力试探性的来犯，一般来说，我们都会打怕他们，当然也有谈判的时候，这个时候就是我们不想打战的时候，比如北宋。
第三、美国可以打下伊朗，那又怎样？伊拉克和阿富汗现在不是不太平吗？反正打和不打都是路，现在的伊拉克和阿富汗的不太平可以这么看：
第一、美国人退出就太平，美国人白打了
第二、美国人控制伊拉克的政府和议会？难。
What Happened to the Ban on Assault Weapons?
The gun lobby and the firearms industry should reassess their policies concerning safety and accountability — at least on assault weapons — and ease their pressure on acquiescent politicians who fear N.R.A. disapproval at election time. We can’t let the N.R.A.’s politicalblackmail prevent the banning of assault weapons — designed only to kill police officers and the people they defend.
Countercyclical assets, a continuing series
Lebanon, at least for now:
But while number crunchers elsewhere toil to trim over-optimistic estimates into punier real results, statisticians at the Banque du Liban are revising theirs sharply upwards. Lebanon’s GDP grew during 2008, not at an annual rate of 7.5%, it seems, but at 9% or better.
Yet even that trend-bucking number looks modest compared to other milestones scored by this small, almost comically turbulent country. Last year the value of deposits in Lebanese commercial banks rose by 15% to an impressive $94 billion, equal to 327% of GDP. Industrial exports surged 24%. Tax revenues, tourist arrivals, banking profits and the number of construction permits all soared by a third or more. A giant 46% leap in net capital inflows helped Lebanon post a record $3.5 billion surplus in its balance of payments, and boosted the Banque du Liban’s own reserves to a cosy $22 billion, nearly double its holdings a year ago.
Nor does this upswing show much sign of slowing. Sales of new cars are up by 19%, and the number of tourists arriving in the country in the first three months of this year increased by 50% compared with the same period last year. Property prices are holding the past few years’ heady gains, and worries that the global recession would force home thousands of Lebanese expatriates, slashing the remittances that underpin the economy, have so far proven unfounded.
artificial intelligence
Eric Nyberg, a computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University, is collaborating with I.B.M. on research to devise computing systems capable of answering questions that are not limited to specific topics. The real difficulty, Dr. Nyberg said, is not searching a database but getting the computer to understand what it should be searching for.
The system must be able to deal with analogies, puns, double entendres and relationships like size and location, all at lightning speed.
As Nations Try to Contain Flu, N.Y. Cases Are Confirmed
HONG KONG — Officials around the world raced to contain an outbreak of swine flu as cases were confirmed in New York on Sunday and potential ones were reported from New Zealand to Hong Kong to Spain, raising concerns about the potential for a global pandemic.
经济危机 plus 公共卫生危机
一个伟大的国家有一个伟大的政府，而公共安全明显是其提供的公共品之一，没有哪个私人可以提供并合理界定和收费。
2009年4月26日星期日
五位高手历史学家比较奥巴马和其他的总统
OBAMA VS. REAGEN
Mr. Reagan saw government as the problem. Believing that government was strangling the private sector, he proposed lower taxes and reduced regulations. In Mr. Obama’s catechism, government is the solution. In addition to trying to spendthe nation out of recession, Mr. Obama seeks regulations to curb the excesses of Wall Street and tax increases on the wealthy to help pay for a near-universal health care system.
Kazakhstan Bank Stops Repaying Foreign Debt
MOSCOW — The largest bank in the Central Asian nation ofKazakhstan, whose economy soared when oil prices were high, announced on Friday that it could no longer repay $11 billion in foreign debt.
The bank, BTA, said it would pay only interest to foreign creditors, who lavished the country with loans during the commodity boom
哈经济发展特点
1、私有化进程快。现私有经济已占国家经济总量的80％以上；
2、对外来经济依赖性很强。自建国收到的外来投资按人均在独联体国家占第一位。
3、对外来商品依存度很高。特别是高科技产品、生活日用品、轻工产品 基本被美国、德国、日本、韩国、中国、土耳其的商品所替代。市场需求旺盛，物资集散辐射面广。
1、私有化进程快。现私有经济已占国家经济总量的80％以上；
2、对外来经济依赖性很强。自建国收到的外来投资按人均在独联体国家占第一位。
3、对外来商品依存度很高。特别是高科技产品、生活日用品、轻工产品 基本被美国、德国、日本、韩国、中国、土耳其的商品所替代。市场需求旺盛，物资集散辐射面广。
第一、为什么借外债。要清楚，货币可以追逐物质。哈借外债，是为了借物质，说明其国内物质有些不能满足其需求。
第二、风险。这些国际投资者在哈的投资会受损。
Iraq Resists Pleas by U.S. to Placate Hussein’s Party
Mr. Maliki’s adviser for reconciliation, Mohammed Salman al-Saady, said he knew nothing of those promises, but he acknowledged that Mr. Maliki’s government had “fundamental differences” with Washington over how far to extend reconciliation“According to the Constitution, holding negotiations with the Baath Party is a red line that cannot be crossed,” Mr. Saady said.“The Constitution is not a holy book — it can be amended,” he said
也就是说，有些人肉炸弹为的是政治利益，这就好办了，美国人最怕你为的是宗教诉求，真主连美国人都不好谈判。但是，伊拉克现任政府不同意也是可以预见的。
2009年4月25日星期六
continuous but not differentiable
Stock prices are approximately brownian motion, which means they are everywhere continuous but nowhere differentiable. In plainer English,
"continuous" means that stock prices an instant from now, or an instant ago, are close to where they are now.
"not differentiable" means that the direction they move over the next instant is not necessarily close to the the direction they were heading over the last instant.
连续但不可导。
A Financial Engine Shut-off Switch
The devices, which are required by a growing number ofsubprime loan contracts, are the product of a revolution intelematics — the blending of telecommunications and wireless technology.
The devices are usually controlled remotely by the dealeror lender and are linked to the vehicle’s powertrain. They usually cut out the power several days after the payment isdue. Before the deadline, the driver is treated to a concertof tones and flashing indicators signaling that the deadlineis approaching. There are also warnings after the deadline has passed.
Acme Rent-A-Car (its real name) for automatically penalizing renters $150 if (GPS showed) they drove the cars faster than 80 m.p.h.
Both technologies are examples of commitment devices, which help driverscommit to particular behaviors. Both should only be used with abundant ex ante disclosure so that the drivers know what they’re signing up for.
One concern with the financial cut-off switches is that they might leave a driver high and dry when she really needs the car — say, to drive to the hospital in an emergency
借钱买车，其实应该分开来说。一个是，我从企业买车，另一个是，我欠企业的钱。如果我在买车的时候，签了合同，即允许这两件事情的自然衔接，即当我换不了钱的时候，自动交出车。如果没这么签，应该不能自然衔接。就好比三角债，A欠B，B欠C，在没有经得B的同意，C应该不能够直接向C讨债。
2009年4月24日星期五
amend the bankruptcy code
amend the bankruptcy code so that borrowers facing foreclosure can have their mortgages modified under court protection. That is key.
The House passed reform legislation more than a month ago. Senate Democratic leaders say that nearly all 58 members of their caucus are on board. Republican leaders say all 41 of their senators will block a vote. If they hold ranks, it would mean that senators from states hardest hit by foreclosures would help to ensure the bill’s failure — including John McCain and Jon Kyl of Arizona and John Ensign of Nevada.
Republican opposition appears to have more to do with fund-raising than principle. The American Bankers Association and other lobbies remain opposed to the fix. Sam Geduldig, a lobbyist for several banking trade associations, recently told The Times’s Stephen Labaton and Eric Dash that as a minority party, Republicans will get “professional donors and lobbyists to look at them in a different light,” if they show they can affect policy.
There might be some good news. Several powerhouse banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, have been talking with Democratic leaders in recent days about crafting a bankruptcy fix. Democrats hope the big banks can rope in a few Republicans. The danger is the bill could be watered down.
2009年4月23日星期四
Shame Is Fleeting
But here he is on the latest cover of Newsweek. Not only are we seeing plenty of him, after a round of television appearances as well, but it appears that Spitzer is blazing a new road to redemption — a shortcut, at that. Polls show him more popular than the current governor of New York, which isn’t saying much.
Of late, moralists, ministers, politicians and celebrities of varying degrees of self-regard have been felled by scandal only to rise after doing minimal time in the desert of ill-repute.
ebay bank!
每次金融危机开始后，经济学家们就开始嚷嚷要改革金融界，加强监管，改变监管模式，这后面的一个暗语是：
银行永不倒！
银行永不倒！
确实，我们需要金融中介，这就和我们的另一个习惯思维一样，“我们需要商人”。但是Ebay却打破了这个习惯。
或许，Ebay模式可以成功地移植到金融中介上来，Ebank，Efinance。
As Housing Market Dips, More in U.S. Are Staying Put
Experts said the lack of mobility was of concern on twofronts. It suggests that Americans were unable or unwillingto follow any job opportunities that may have existedaround the country, as they have in the past. And the lackof movement itself, they said, could have an impact on the economy, reducing the economic activity generated by moves.Jed Smith, a research director for the National Association of Realtors, said that on average it took a homeowner 10.5 months to sell a house in 2008 compared with 8.9 months in 2007.
Joseph S. Tracy, research director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the lack of mobility meant less income for movers and the people they employ and less spending on renovation and on durable goods like appliances. But, Dr. Tracy said, the most troubling prospectis that people were no longer able to relocate for work.
但是，总体趋势从二战后就一直在下降呀。也就是说，可能房子更难卖出去、工作更难找是加速了流动性的减少，但是这个趋势并不是这两方面造成的，因为前面下降的时候并没有这两方面的原因。所以，我认为，造成流动性下降的原因有三：政策约束、新地方找工作是否容易、老房子是否容易卖出
Mississippi Mayor Faces Re-Election and a Trial
Mayor Melton is facing a criminal trial for his part in the demolition of a house that he mistakenly thought was a drug den.
Mr. Melton attributes the rise in crime to a police department more interested in bureaucracy than action. What Jackson needs, he has said, is a mayor who understands the city’s concerns.
How to Manage Your Reputation Online
Use your name to register your own Web site. I would also recommend a sub domain and a blog, again using your real name. Wordpressand LiveJournal both have high Google PageRanks. Look into how to use title tags and headers to further optimize your results. Almost without exception, your Web site will show up as the first result in your name search.
Piggyback off web sites whose pages rank high in Google. Social networking sites are great for this. Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn, YouTube,Flickr, Naymz, Tumblr, Twitter, StumbleUpon, Vimeo, FriendFeed and Ningare great places to start. You don’t have to actively use these sites. Simplypark your profile, add the necessary amount of content and make sure to adjust the settings to public view where appropriate so that your profile can be crawled and indexed by Google
Treasury Is Said to Increase Its Offer to Chrysler Lenders
Chrysler’s lenders, who hold about $6.9 billion worth of debt, would receive about 22 cents on the dollar, or about $1.5 billion. They would also receive a 5 percent equity stake in the reorganized company
the steering committee of Chrysler’s lenders sought at least 65 cents on the dollar, or about $4.5 billion, and a roughly 40 percent equity stake in a restructured Chrysler(The lenders’ steering committee — comprising five banks and three investment firms and led by JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup)
Fiat would take a 20 percent stake in the company in exchange for small-car models and various technologies. It would not invest any cash.
U.A.W. should be forced to accept greater concessions. The U.A.W. has tentatively agreed to allow Chrysler to use stock to finance half of a $10.6 billion fund for its retired workers’ health care obligations.
政府、债权人、员工、fiat都有自己的利益诉求，看来chrysler的原股东也改有话说了。
新房、旧房、价格、数量hyperthesis！
第一、危机下，新房的价格比旧房先下跌，波动幅度也更大。因为，当需求减少时，新房的供给还在增加，而老房不增加，新房的价格就会先下跌；当需求增加时，新房的生产已经停止，所以新房的价格会先上升，因为老房的供给没变。再者新房比老房贵，投机者更多，波动性会更大。有一点疑问是，当需求上来了，价格上涨时，新房的部分需求是否会转移给老房。第二、价格比数量先下跌。因为产量是具有惯性的，当生产进行时，机器还在，员工还在，资金还在，会继续生产，即使需求在减少，而供给增加，所以价格会先下降；价格持续下降的信息，让管理者开始裁员，减少贷款，卖掉机器，数量开始下降；当需求上来时，而重新生产时需要时间的，所以价格就先上去了；当价格上去的信息传开时，管理者就开始招募员工了。
Your Brain on Facebook
If surfing the web increases workplace productivity, what does spending time on Facebook do to college students? According to a study by Aryn Karpinski and Adam Duberstein, college students who use Facebook have lower GPA’s and devote less time to studying than other students. While the study didn’t prove causality — do low-GPA, anti-study students self-select into Facebook? — could this be early evidence of a Facebook Brain Drain?
2009年4月22日星期三
Morgan Stanley Posts Loss as Revenue Fell 62%
While narrower spreads are ordinarily a good sign — they suggest that investors are more confident in Morgan Stanley’s creditworthiness — they reduced the company’s earnings for accounting reasons（？不懂。投资者对Morgan Stanley的信誉增加，credit spread---treasuary minus non-treasuary下降，说明国债利率上升，实业企业借贷的利率下降；而Morgan Stanley是搞资金流通的，贷款利率下降，当然收入减少）.
“While challenging markets continued to impact our results this quarter, we saw improved performance across most of our businesses during the past three months,” Mr. Mack said.
In the last few weeks, big financial firms such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase,Citigroup and Bank of America（说明，这些企业和Morgan Stanley在业务上还是有很大差别的） have reported quarterly results that topped analysts’ expectations. Many of these banks relied on accounting gains or onetime factors, however, raising questions about the strength of their core businesses.
Like Goldman, Morgan Stanley shifted its fiscal reporting structure to a calendar year from a fiscal year. For this reason, Morgan Stanley’s results for the month of December — a $1.3 billion loss — were reported separately.（好奇怪的会计准则）
Also, Morgan Stanley said it was reducing its dividend for common shareholders to 5 cents per share.（？，亏损还能发放普通股的股息？）
Freddie Mac Executive Found Dead
David B. Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of Freddie Mac, was found dead at his Northern Virginia home Wednesday morning, the police said.
Several media reports, including CNN, reported that Mr. Kellermann, 41, apparently committed suicide. A spokeswoman for the Fairfax County police would not confirm the reports, only saying there were no signs of foul play.
为什么又是CFO自杀？！
私人和政府做生意
一、私人愿意给办事人，即官员钱，即说明这是合理的（在现有制度下），不划算私人不会给钱，这些钱是成本而已
二、通过贿赂官员获得项目，对政府的项目质量，市场有何影响。就怕，给钱给官员，卖给政府的东西是劣质品
三、拍卖，正反拍卖，政府采购就反拍卖，政府处置资产就正拍卖
可见，在不同政体都会出现寻租，美国纽约也出现“上海社保案”。但是官员的权力被分立就有渠道沟通，事发后可以合法地惩罚了，以警后人了；而不像A国，不惩罚，惯坏人了。
PS:中国的医疗体系和美国差不多
Saving a City by Shrinking It
Dozens of proposals have been floated over the years to slow the decline of Flint, Mich. Now another idea is gaining support. As the Times's David Streitfeld reports, instead of waiting for houses to become abandoned and then pulling them down, local leaders are talking aboutdemolishing entire blocks and even whole neighborhoods.
“Decline in Flint is like gravity, a fact of life,” said Dan Kildee, the Genesee County treasurer. “We need to control it instead of letting it control us.”
企业在面临危机时会削减规模，减少交易，没想到一个城市也需这样
To Tweet or Not to Tweet
In a droll nod to shifting technology, there’s a British red telephone booth in the loftlike office that you are welcome to use but you’ll have to bring in your cellphone.
I was here on a simple quest: curious to know if the inventors of Twitter were as annoying as their invention. (They’re not. They’re charming.)
ME: You say the brevity of Twitter enhances creativity. So I wonder if you can keep your answers to 140 characters, like Twitter users must. Twitter seems like telegrams without the news. We now know that on the president’s trip to Trinidad, ABC News’s Jake Tapper’s shower was spewing brown water. Is there any thought that doesn’t need to be published?
BIZ: The one I’m thinking right now.
当你又爱又恨twitter的时候，twitter怎样构建自己的盈利模式？
旧房换新房
“旧房换新房，小房换大房”及是用自己的房子经过评估公司的评估后，其价值被当作首付房款或者购房款置换协信旗下的房源.而参与本次活动的单位除了协信集团以外,更大一部份由钢运 大泽 美联等几家房地产中介机构来共同完成。协信本次“旧房换新房活动”将会持续较长的时间段，时间大概会持续几个月
市国土房管局对外通报，本次春季房交会普通住房契税按0.5%征收，别墅和商业、办公用房契税按照1.5%征收，普通二手房营业税免征。该政策执行时间从2009年4月23日~5月7日。和平时相比，这次房交会的优惠范围扩大，洋房纳入普通住宅的范畴。
第一、旧房换新房的税收问题，主要是土地增值税问题，是要分开算的。旧房的增值部分需要购房者缴纳土地增值税，新房的增值部分需要房地产商缴纳土地增值税。
第二，税务机关的税收征管问题，主要涉及的是“评估公司”的认定。税务部门应该只承认自己认可的评估公司给出的旧房评估报告
第三，优惠时间限制问题。协信的旧房换新房计划的时限不明确，好处的到时好解释，不会食言；而房交会的时限是确定的，好处是可以给购房者压力。
第四，房交会。好处是，构建了一个市场，减少了交易成本，同时也为现有参与者构建了一个好的经济环境。缺点是，不公平，新进入者没有机会。
第五，犹太人。这个时候，很多老板可能会急，我的公司怎么就出不了一个犹太大脑，想出点子把房子卖掉。在大环境是观望下，犹太人也回天无术。有人曾想和其他地产商合作故意把房价炒高，失效
第六，协信换入的旧房怎么办？怎么入账？协信不是上市公司，记账的要求不多了。如果是上市公司的话，怎么记账？投资性房地产？怎么处置这些旧房？改装？学REIT?
sustomers！
staff +customers=sustomers：
现在企业里都是通过调查/试验来了解消费者到底需要什么，这种方法的弊端是，不真实、不及时（比如说，我认为facebook应该改版成“家”的形式，就是说，有门；校内应该加入找工作模块）
其实还可以有这样一种模式，招募有想法的消费者，让他成为企业非正式的一部分，称其为sustomers，对其的激励可以是精神上的，物质上的，重要的是设置一个激励制度。
Swimming Without a Suit
or ,lead the world without a leading education for US
经济学里，禀赋和制度同样重要。其实，看这两块对经济发展的作用时，也得看边际作用。禀赋（教育）增加的影响其实也是边际递减的，制度也一样。美国有最自由的市场经济，但是它没有最有效的环保经济制度。
a metaphor
if you take country as a runner:
us lead the world although under crisis
us lead the world although under crisis
jp follow
uk gm fr follow
china chase after
then,
1、us cound come back ,kick china's ass, then china will decline,but the fight exhaust us simultaneously
2、us continuely improve itself regardless of china
3、someday, china will outrun us, someday us will outrun china
4、we all have high-power weapons, someday ,if us outrun by china, will us fire a war;just like a man outrun by another, he is very angry and shame, he fight
How Environmentalism Misses the Forest for the Trees
The old mantra “think globally, act locally,” is pretty silly. Local environmentalism is often bad environmentalism, because keeping one’s backyard pristine can make the planet worse off. Preventing wind farms leaves Cape Cod’s views untouched, but increases carbon emissions.
In my own field of housing, a similar phenomenon occurs when some environmental groups put their own local interests ahead of global warming.
亚老师说每个人追求自己的利益，这个社会的财富会更多。看来不尽然。
第一、亚老师的意思，是基于交易的。即，如果某个人想获得利润，他就要生产，然后去交易获得利润。但是，在环保上面，某些地区的人会因为在当地建核电站而使环境受威胁，这些人当然会反对的
第二、除非是基于交易的。也就是说，当地老百姓承受这种威胁，其他地区的人给你补贴，给你提供工作机会；而这种模式才是王道
第三、在中国，因为政府拥有至高无上、不受制约的权力，中国建核电站没看到有抗议的。当然我们的政府权力大，可以做得事情也多，不管好坏。针对建核电站上，还是补贴了当地百姓的。
Q&A: by Fama/French Forum
Q&A: Thoughts on Mark-to-Market
1、What do you think of the mark to market issue?
EFF: It gives investors a good estimate of what a financial institution is worth. It has more flexibility than commonly realized, especially for illiquid assets, where best estimates of value can be used.
KRF: There is not enough empirical evidence to be sure who is right about this issue, but we can guess. Those against marking to market argue that the transaction prices for securities sold under duress do not reflect their true value. If you and I both own relatively illiquid assets and you choose to sell yours quickly at a fire sale price, mark to market accounting may force me to write down the value of my assets to your transaction price. Unless I also plan to sell my position quickly, this undervalues my position. The critical question, however, is whether your transaction price is more accurate than the model value I would use if I am not forced to mark to market. My guess—and this is only a guess—is that the observed transaction price is typically more accurate than the model. In other words, marking to market would improve the accuracy of my balance sheet.
Acconomics：mark to market,会在交易双方疯狂的时候失灵。比如说，股市上涨，大家都认为未来会上涨，下跌，都认为未来会下跌。这种预期是错误的，但是交易价格是基于这种预期的！
2、I have a client who is convinced that an inverted yield curve is a signal to get out of equities. What are your thoughts on this topic?
EFF/KRF: Inverted yield curves are often observed at the front end of recessions. But there's no evidence that they predict stock returns, which also tend to predict (decline in advance of) recessions. Your client's implicit premise is that bond market investors predict future economic activity better than stock market investors. The evidence says that both markets are moderately good at predicting future economic activity, and inverted yield curves are not reliable predictors of stock returns.
3、Recently, I've heard some say "I got out of the market in May 2008 and I am sure glad I did." Given the obviously positive results of this decision, what is the best argument to convince people that buy and hold is better than timing the market?
EFF: Wins and losses from market timing bets are both just unpredictable chance outcomes, and good luck is, of course, better than bad luck. The problem with market timing is that you may be out of the market in periods of strong returns.
KRF: There is a large academic literature on whether market returns are predictable. The general conclusion is that it is impossible to predict the market return with any confidence... "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," by Amit Goyal and Ivo Welch (Review of Financial Studies, 2008), is a good summary of the evidence.
Acconomics：buy and hold the SOC\big company if you have no inner information; trade based on inner information if you have
What Are Friends for? A Longer Life
“People with stronger friendship networks feel like there is someone they can turn to,” said Karen A. Roberto, director of the center for gerontology at Virginia Tech. “Friendship is an undervalued resource. The consistent message of these studies is that friends make your life better.”
我的理解是：
一、样本是否具有代表性。那些更健康的人是否会更多的进入样本空间？会。
一、样本是否具有代表性。那些更健康的人是否会更多的进入样本空间？会。
二、样本数据是否收集错误。
三、控制变量是否可控，非解释变量实在太多，很难控制，即使你使用compare-to-compare试验组合。
美国人为什么不彻底搞掉索马里海盗？
这是两位专家给出的建议：
First, the United States and other states with warships in the area should review their rules of engagement when confronting pirate ships. Warships should have the authority to use lethal force against small speed boats or skiffs with high horsepower engines carrying men armed with AK-47 rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers as well as piracy equipment such as ladders and grappling hooks. If warships come across such boats attempting to hijack a ship, the small boats should not simply be chased off. They should be attacked and sunk.
Second, because the small speed boats and skiffs operate from larger “mother ships,” they are able to attack ships far from the coast. The mother ships are often dhows or fishing vessels which have themselves been hijacked. More steps should be taken by the U.S. Navy and its partners to locate and neutralize these “mother ships.”
Third, the United States should consider imposing a naval blockade on the major ports which are supporting the pirate activities. Only humanitarian aid should be allowed into such ports. This will send a message to the local communities that they will pay a price for supporting the actions of the pirates. If necessary, the international community should not hesitate to attack the pirates in their land bases, which is authorized both by the UN Security Council and the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia.
Fourth, to gain support from the local communities, the United States should push for the U.N. Security Council to order all foreign fishing vessels to stay out of the exclusiveeconomic zone of Somalia. This is important because one reason some local fishingcommunities support the pirates is that they believe foreign fishing vessels have been plundering their fishing resources.
Fifth, the United States and its allies should give aid and assistance to states in the region, such as Kenya, that are willing to prosecute pirates apprehended by foreign warships.
Sixth, the international community should use other relevant international conventions tocombat Somali piracy. These include including the 1988 Convention for the Suppression ofUnlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (SUA Convention) and the 1979 International Convention Against the Taking of Hostages (Hostages Convention).
Seventh, we urge the shipping community to reconsider taking armed marshals on board.
The SUA and Hostages Conventions are potentially useful tools because they are broadly accepted. If alleged offenders are present in the territory of a state party, the state has an obligation to take them into custody and to either extradite them or prosecute them.
In conclusion, we urge President Obama and Secretary Clinton to show decisive leadership in leading the international community to defeat the Somali pirates. They will have both the law and world public opinion on their side. In the 21st century, it is unacceptable for the world’s shipping to be helpless and continue to be preyed upon by the Somali pirates.
the United States should lead, not act unilaterally
其实还有一条，可以帮助Somalia致富。至于为什么美国不搞掉索马里海盗有几种假设：
一、看美国打的任何战争，根本没有彻底成功过，因为美国的战争不是合并性质的，只是为了做生意，这是不长久的。所以，第一个可能是，美国人自己根本就不自信可以领导全球把索马里海盗给彻底端掉
二、美国人不愿意。为什么？因为它怕失败
三、美国人没有领导能力。因为中国等国大了，翅膀硬了。
四、索马里海盗就是美国人控制的，进而间接控制红海他国商船运输。那索马里海盗为啥子劫美国人的船，是给世界人民演戏吗？
虽说做生意没什么不对，但是不公平竞争确实可恶。国家间的做生意其实就是不公平的。
EU,US,CHINA
当初欧洲人用大炮打开中国的大门，杀了一些人，无非是想和中国人做生意，其实，只要政府不干预，中国人还是很喜欢做生意的，做起生意来和犹太人有得一比。
国家间的制衡和做生意是一样的：
我要进货，当然不会和一家进，同时跟几家进货
中国和欧洲、美国、俄罗斯；美国人现在和拉丁美洲和好，不就是要制衡中国吗？不是美国制衡中国，而是拉丁美洲要同时和中国、美国打交道；那非洲为啥子不和欧美打交道制衡中国呢？
现在时和平时代，好好生产，好好做生意，政治上的分歧自然会解决的。
my comments to an essay
actually ,we Chinese can name whatever we what, although our government has undivided power,our country is lead by one party.above all,every country are lead by parties ,no matter how many ,but one thing we all keep in mind:good man doesn’t roll into a party ,there is no good phrase for a party ,party always peruse his own interest.we Chinese don’t like an undivided government,we feel unsafe if there is no an undivided government for us.actually , we want to revenge, the people controlled by undivided power want to control others future,yeah ,that’s a revenge!
my colleges studying in US always tell me you American are in no interest in world but America itself, then about naming thing ,i think you guys do be interested in outside world of US,that’s a relief.
from china ,we want you American go through the crisis, American dreams are excuse of life to many people around the world,if you America outrun by china , first,i’m happy for my country ,second,i’m sorry for human being
this is to Obama,you are a symbol for American dream.and a great country need a great government, i hope you can make it
this is to American rich man ,especially jews.please help the poor ,we know ,market reward winner ,that’s right,you are the winners ,but if you don’t help poor,you cann’t just split them off US,not like a stressed bank ,which may be divided into bad bank and good bank ;so please help poor ,no matter how. owning huge wealth means you can help others more,that’s the essence of human being,of market economy,you can’t live forever under the circumstance that poor people can’t live ,can’t work;actually ,your money from capital gain are created by the poor people
here is the essay:China: More People, Fewer Names
Feeding the Local Shark
Approximately two dozen such people offered small loans to residents and local proprietors — anywhere from $25 to $5,000. The obvious advantage was that you didn’t need a solid credit history. Desperation and lack of financial services were the only requirements. The disadvantage lay in high interest rates (40 percent was not uncommon), but also in the associated penalties: contrary to popular perception, very few cases of failed payment led to physical harm. Instead, you could be forced to pay in kind — e.g., with a television set — or with food stamps and welfare checks (which also function as collateral).
中国金融监管的想法很单纯，非审批的金融机构会给很多人造成麻烦，引起系统风险，也就是地下钱庄，如果每个人都牵扯地下钱庄，一下出问题，大家都紧张，系统风险就出来了。这种想法有时需要改变了。
Times Co. Reports Loss of $74 Million
The New York Times Company reported a first-quarter loss of $74.5 million on Tuesday, compared with a loss of $335,000 in the period a year ago, as it joined the roster of newspaper companies recording the steepest advertising declines in generations.
纽约时报集团里有太多除了nyt外的媒体，这些媒体的纸质报纸受损，而网上又没有增长。nyt就不一样，明显可以看到，危机来了，nyt网页上的广告多了很多。
或许时报集团应该把非nyt卖掉，应该裁员，应该减工资，节约成本。但是，我们要记住，如果现在卖掉非nyt部门，第一卖不出好价格，第二经济情况好起来的时候又要买回来，因为时报集团的战略目标是全球第一的媒体，第一的媒体规模不能太小，太小了利润上不去，而且也不能分散风险。
我想时报集团可以多样化运营，比如增加广告制作部门，增加网络部门，购买反周期行业的股票，如walmart。
2009年4月21日星期二
Nonprofit Groups to Push for Exceptions to Lobby Rule
White House officials said there had been no internal debate on the matter and flatly dismissed the proposals, adding that they would not consider any changes because it would start the administration down a slippery slope of declaring some lobbyists acceptable and others unacceptable.
“You can’t have a value judgment,” said Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff.
David Axelrod, the president’s senior adviser, said Mr. Obama understood the tradeoff. Public trust in government is so fragile, he said, that it was important to stick to the campaign promise.
“It’s painful,” Mr. Axelrod said. “There are a lot of good people out there who are philosophically simpatico with us and are very skilled and would be very valuable to us.”
But, he said, “you can’t have carve-outs for lobbyists you like and exclude those that you don’t. It would be very hard for people to understand that distinction. This is one of those cases where we’ve had to sacrifice the help of a lot of very valuable people.”
When Builders Build Bad Loans
A promising bill in the California Legislature would try to do that by going after a particularly troublesome practice of corporate home builders. It would prohibit them from doubling as lenders, issuing mortgages on the homes they build.
第一，消费者交易是自己的事情，这种想法过时了吗？可以知道的是，这种放任确实造成了危机，有些消费者购买了房子，贬值了，他没钱了，不消费了，失业了，造成了经济危机，影响了别人
第二，那政府就可以干预了？或许我们还是放任消费者这样好点。因为产品和市场的信息不对称、不可知造成系统性问题，是不可避免的。
产品、市场信息不可知：谁都不知道这房子值多少钱
More Hatred From Mr. Ahmadinejad
The United Nations conference can never have credibility, or value, if it is used to attack one country — Israel — especially when so many other countries have truly abysmalhuman rights records, including China, Sudan and Iran.
In an ugly speech on Monday that served to divide and incite rather than find constructive solutions to racism, Mr. Ahmadinejad said the formation of the state of Israel left “an entire nation homeless under the pretext of Jewish suffering” in order “to establish a totally racist government in occupied Palestine.”
本来以色列人就是入侵巴勒斯坦呀。
犹太民族是一个有信仰有钱的民族。
中国的一党执政关你鸟事呀。你还是帮我们建立5权分立国家好点。
Immigration and the Unions
工会，美国国内工人想要快速成立，管理者不赞成使已经到美国的非法移民合法化，美国国内公人不赞成，但是国会有些议员为了赢得选票又向这部分非法移民有过许诺
Air Force should be eliminated？！
First, the Air Force should be eliminated, and its personnel and equipment integrated into the Army, Navy and Marine Corps. Second, the archaic “up or out” military promotion system should be scrapped in favor of a plan that treats service members as real assets. Third, the United States needs a national service program for all young men and women, without any deferments, to increase the quality and size of the pool from which troops are drawn.
Yes, air power is a critical component of America’s arsenal. But the Army, Navy and Marines already maintain air wings within their expeditionary units. The Air Force is increasingly a redundancy in structure and spending.
The military should develop a new accounting and personnel system that tracks the cost of developing its human capital and tallies each service member as an investment with a fixed value based on his education, training, experience and performance. This would reflect the departure of a valued service member as an asset lost, not a cost cut. Why are fit men and women who have served in combat, a human experience that a million dollars can’t buy, being pushed out instead of retained for 15, 20, 30 years?
Last, Mr. Gates should urge President Obama to confer with Congress and introduce national service at age 18 for all Americans. Under such a system, young people from all classes and backgrounds would either serve in the military or do other essential work like intelligence assessment, conservation, antipoverty projects, educational tutoring, firefighting, policing, border security, disaster relief or care for the elderly. The best qualified would be assigned to the military.
第一、政府的组织机构问题。有些组织应该合并，使反映速度变快。就好比你需要建一辆好骑的自行车，零部件要拧好，不要东一块西一块；该独立就独立，该结合就结合；情况变了独立或结合也要变
第二、政府、国会、军队等的独立问题。如果完全独立会怎样？如果军队是独立的，那么谁对它发号施令呢？一个想法可能是说国会是其最高统帅，但是国会并没有信息机构，何时大战不知道呀，那么政府部门内的FBI\CIA\NSA就应该画到军队去。现在的军队是属于政府管的。
订阅：
评论 (Atom)
博文
