无数的理论，模型，计量都是在忽悠人， 吗？
经济学基本概念的回归！
2009年1月29日星期四
2009年1月27日星期二
Smoking Ban Hits Home. Truly.
here
市场的作用不是万能的，特别是如果人要无理取闹。吸烟这个是习惯，即使价格提高也不能完全禁止的。因为人是理性的，如果他觉得吸烟有益，价格再高都没用的。
收税还是行政禁止，BELMONT, Calif. 选择了后者。行政禁止，怎样执行呢？由谁执行呢？
可能的效果：
一、一部分人因为可能被发现惩罚，减小吸烟
二、一部人因为习惯偷偷的吸烟
市场的作用不是万能的，特别是如果人要无理取闹。吸烟这个是习惯，即使价格提高也不能完全禁止的。因为人是理性的，如果他觉得吸烟有益，价格再高都没用的。
收税还是行政禁止，BELMONT, Calif. 选择了后者。行政禁止，怎样执行呢？由谁执行呢？
可能的效果：
一、一部分人因为可能被发现惩罚，减小吸烟
二、一部人因为习惯偷偷的吸烟
孙国明40亿非法集资案
任何经济活动，如果不遵循市场规律，将会是丑恶的，扭曲的结果，人性的贪婪，人的不理智，人的自私，人的兽性，打打杀杀都会显示出来，人类的文明是多么脆弱的东西。
贷款，就该按市场规律俩，因为央行和银监局的干预，导致合法的融资产所少，大银行只借给认识的大企业。为了金融安全，名义上的，水底下是多少的暗流涌动，而中国人却默含眼泪弯腰承受！
贷款，就该按市场规律俩，因为央行和银监局的干预，导致合法的融资产所少，大银行只借给认识的大企业。为了金融安全，名义上的，水底下是多少的暗流涌动，而中国人却默含眼泪弯腰承受！
人与人的关系，人与物的关系
是会相互作用的
如果，你是一个老板，做得比别人好，在抢一个客户的时候，竞争对手表现出了动物的本性，他威胁说你敢跟我抢客户，我就杀了你！
你会怎么办？你学得经济学知识无用了。市场的作用尴尬了。
人与人之间的关系是复杂的，危险的。
如果，你是一个老板，做得比别人好，在抢一个客户的时候，竞争对手表现出了动物的本性，他威胁说你敢跟我抢客户，我就杀了你！
你会怎么办？你学得经济学知识无用了。市场的作用尴尬了。
人与人之间的关系是复杂的，危险的。
How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions
Since the Great Depression, presidents have frequently experimented with Keynesian economics to combat recessions. Three economists chronicle the history of government policy during past recessions and explain what worked and what didn’t.
Since the Great Depression, presidents have frequently experimented with Keynesian economics to combat recessions. Three economists chronicle the history of government policy during past recessions and explain what worked and what didn’t.
2009年1月26日星期一
两个看似违反经济学常识的例子
一、茅台酒故意限定产量以维持价格和品牌。OPEC同理。
二、正月初一去寺庙的人这么多，算是一种宗教追求，一种利益性的宗教追求，为什么寺庙不多起来，不收钱呢？它们的商业模式也很特别，不当面说收钱，只是给钱给佛祖买更大的野心，而寺庙的人代佛祖用钱。
一、因为垄断
二、因为季节性，入市阻碍
二、正月初一去寺庙的人这么多，算是一种宗教追求，一种利益性的宗教追求，为什么寺庙不多起来，不收钱呢？它们的商业模式也很特别，不当面说收钱，只是给钱给佛祖买更大的野心，而寺庙的人代佛祖用钱。
一、因为垄断
二、因为季节性，入市阻碍
The Talented Mr. Madoff
here
“Typically, people with psychopathic personalities don’t fear getting caught,” explains Dr. Meloy, author of a 1988 textbook, “The Psychopathic Mind.” “They tend to be very narcissistic with a strong sense of entitlement.”
“With serial killers, they have control over the life or death of people,” Mr. McCrary explains. “They’re playing God. That’s the grandiosity coming through. The sense of being superior. Madoff is getting the same thing. He’s playing financial god, ruining these people and taking their money.”
“Typically, people with psychopathic personalities don’t fear getting caught,” explains Dr. Meloy, author of a 1988 textbook, “The Psychopathic Mind.” “They tend to be very narcissistic with a strong sense of entitlement.”
“With serial killers, they have control over the life or death of people,” Mr. McCrary explains. “They’re playing God. That’s the grandiosity coming through. The sense of being superior. Madoff is getting the same thing. He’s playing financial god, ruining these people and taking their money.”
2009年1月25日星期日
2009年1月22日星期四
如果国家和企业一样好倒腾，该是一个怎样的结果！
On Palestinian Question, Tough Choices for Obama
确实，国家的事情不像倒腾企业那么简单，主要的原因有几个，一个是因为大而杂，二个是因为国家的人民对自己国家的归属感！
想当初【二战后】美国、英国、俄罗斯三巨头倒腾世界格局的时候，中东和中国是非常棘手的，问题留到了现在也无法选择，因为这两类国家的人民都很倔，都有着非常僵硬的归属感！当初我党没被美国看中，等到我党强大的时候，美国想让国民党和我党一起组成民主国家，还是不成功，美国很伤心的啦！中东也是差不多的道理。现在中国看似已经守规矩，和世界主流民主搭架了，其实我还是担心中国以后会走老路，美国的努力又会白费，因为中国人太守旧了，特别是在国家观念，民主和自由观念上！
如果国家和企业一样好倒腾，该是一个怎样的结果！
确实，国家的事情不像倒腾企业那么简单，主要的原因有几个，一个是因为大而杂，二个是因为国家的人民对自己国家的归属感！
想当初【二战后】美国、英国、俄罗斯三巨头倒腾世界格局的时候，中东和中国是非常棘手的，问题留到了现在也无法选择，因为这两类国家的人民都很倔，都有着非常僵硬的归属感！当初我党没被美国看中，等到我党强大的时候，美国想让国民党和我党一起组成民主国家，还是不成功，美国很伤心的啦！中东也是差不多的道理。现在中国看似已经守规矩，和世界主流民主搭架了，其实我还是担心中国以后会走老路，美国的努力又会白费，因为中国人太守旧了，特别是在国家观念，民主和自由观念上！
如果国家和企业一样好倒腾，该是一个怎样的结果！
2009年1月21日星期三
Barack Obama’s Inaugural Address
My fellow citizens:
I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.
Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.
So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.
These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America’s decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.
Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met.
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.
In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.
For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life.
For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.
For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh.
Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.
This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act - not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do.
Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.
What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public’s dollars will be held to account - to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day - because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.
Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.
As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.
Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.
We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus - and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.
To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society’s ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.
To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world’s resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.
For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter’s courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent’s willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.
Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends - hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism - these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
This is the price and the promise of citizenship.
This is the source of our confidence - the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.
This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.
So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America’s birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:
"Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it]."
America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.
I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.
Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.
So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.
These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America’s decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.
Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met.
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.
In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.
For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life.
For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.
For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh.
Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.
This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act - not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do.
Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.
What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public’s dollars will be held to account - to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day - because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.
Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.
As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.
Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.
We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus - and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.
To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society’s ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.
To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world’s resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.
For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter’s courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent’s willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.
Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends - hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism - these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
This is the price and the promise of citizenship.
This is the source of our confidence - the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.
This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.
So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America’s birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:
"Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet [it]."
America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.
addiction和习惯
addiction是“上瘾”，芝加哥大学专门有人研究这个，比如说Gary Becker。上瘾没有好坏之分，习惯也没有好坏之分。
但是上瘾和习惯有什么区别呢？它们都表达的是人对物的一种持续的关系。都会使人不理性，对市场反应慢。
其实人与物的关系除了市场还有很多地方。很多时候不是和“交换”相关的，是和消费，生产，分配，浪费，偷窃，抢劫，丢东西，等待相关。这些怎么用经济学来解释和改造？博弈论之类的提供了工具。
但是上瘾和习惯有什么区别呢？它们都表达的是人对物的一种持续的关系。都会使人不理性，对市场反应慢。
其实人与物的关系除了市场还有很多地方。很多时候不是和“交换”相关的，是和消费，生产，分配，浪费，偷窃，抢劫，丢东西，等待相关。这些怎么用经济学来解释和改造？博弈论之类的提供了工具。
什么决定了价格水平！
一个是供给和需求
另一个是固定成本和需求量。企业肯定要在盈亏平衡点以上运营，如果一个市场的需求量上，那么他必须使边际利润高一点，从而抵消固定成本。这就解释了为什么横峰县的KTV比大城市的还贵！【边际利润=边际收益-边际成本】
马老师说一个物品的价值是由社会生产时间决定的，也就是由社会的机会成本决定的，而价格因为供给和需求而波动。这个是不完全的。固定成本和需求量才决定了一个产品的价值。
另一个是固定成本和需求量。企业肯定要在盈亏平衡点以上运营，如果一个市场的需求量上，那么他必须使边际利润高一点，从而抵消固定成本。这就解释了为什么横峰县的KTV比大城市的还贵！【边际利润=边际收益-边际成本】
马老师说一个物品的价值是由社会生产时间决定的，也就是由社会的机会成本决定的，而价格因为供给和需求而波动。这个是不完全的。固定成本和需求量才决定了一个产品的价值。
经济活动和经济学
都说经济学是研究经济活动的。那什么是经济活动？经济学怎么解释和预测经济活动呢？
首先，经济活动是人和物的关系，不是人和人，也不是物和物的关系。人和人的关系是社会活动，物和物的关系是物理或化学活动。之所以把人从物里面分离开来，是因为人有思考能力，人有创造力。
其次，经济活动体现的是人和物之间的矛盾，以及怎么解决这个矛盾。
“我早上起来刷牙，洗脸，坐车去上学，然后吃饭，吃完饭去逛街，逛街买了串串吃，吃完把棍子丢到垃圾箱里，……”
这些看似无聊的活动，都是人和物的关系。多，杂，乱，看起来没有规律！
但是从哲学家里分离出来的经济学家创造性的提炼出了几个规律：
一、人是理性人，处理任何与物的关系的时候都是趋利避害的！
二、物的一个属性---价格！和另一个属性---数量！符合剪刀关系！
如果把这两条原理挂在心里，很多经济活动就很好理解了。
首先，经济活动是人和物的关系，不是人和人，也不是物和物的关系。人和人的关系是社会活动，物和物的关系是物理或化学活动。之所以把人从物里面分离开来，是因为人有思考能力，人有创造力。
其次，经济活动体现的是人和物之间的矛盾，以及怎么解决这个矛盾。
“我早上起来刷牙，洗脸，坐车去上学，然后吃饭，吃完饭去逛街，逛街买了串串吃，吃完把棍子丢到垃圾箱里，……”
这些看似无聊的活动，都是人和物的关系。多，杂，乱，看起来没有规律！
但是从哲学家里分离出来的经济学家创造性的提炼出了几个规律：
一、人是理性人，处理任何与物的关系的时候都是趋利避害的！
二、物的一个属性---价格！和另一个属性---数量！符合剪刀关系！
如果把这两条原理挂在心里，很多经济活动就很好理解了。
中国历史上最大的人口迁移
春运是什么？黄牛票，一票难求，……这些概念涌入脑海。
这些都符合最基本的经济学常识。
问题是，为什么没有资金进入春运业呢？原因有二，一个是行政门槛，一个是经济门槛，经济门槛是指春运业的季节性！季节性经济活动是一个非常难以解决的经济活动，经济学也很少能够很好的解释和改造这个活动。春运时人多，买了20辆车的公司，春运过后这些车怎么办？
季节性是一个经济活动的属性之一，只是不同的活动程度不同，春运，秋收，食堂打饭等待都是季节性很强的经济活动。
这些都符合最基本的经济学常识。
问题是，为什么没有资金进入春运业呢？原因有二，一个是行政门槛，一个是经济门槛，经济门槛是指春运业的季节性！季节性经济活动是一个非常难以解决的经济活动，经济学也很少能够很好的解释和改造这个活动。春运时人多，买了20辆车的公司，春运过后这些车怎么办？
季节性是一个经济活动的属性之一，只是不同的活动程度不同，春运，秋收，食堂打饭等待都是季节性很强的经济活动。
“Our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions — that time has surely passed.”—From the Inaugural Speech
2009年1月20日星期二
the great but confused debate
I for fiscal policy:paul krugman, delong
II against fiscal policy but for nothing:gary becker
IV against fiscal policy and for what i don't know:Tyler Cowen
他们在互相抱怨，沟通有问题，都说对方傻，但是他们说得角度不一样。krugman认为MP已经没用了，因为联邦指导利率已经zero了，FP可以短期内拉到需求，提供就业。mankiw认为FP会扭曲市场行为，MP还可以用一些创新性的金融手段拉动需求。
2009年1月19日星期一
Mr. Rajan Was Unpopular (But Prescient) at Greenspan Party
To outline his fears about the U.S. economy, Raghuram Rajan picked a tough crowd.It was August 2005, at an annual gathering of high-powered economists at Jackson Hole, Wyo. -- and that year they were honoring Alan Greenspan. Mr. Greenspan, a giant of 20th-century economic policy, was about to retire as Federal Reserve chairman after presiding over a historic period of economic growth.Mr. Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth Graduate School of Business, chose that moment to deliver a paper called "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?"His answer: Yes.
自由市场的作用在理论上都已经被证明为不完美，更别说在实务界。University of Chicago's Booth Graduate School of Business，大家知道是自由市场的卫道士，rajan 先生的勇气值得褒奖。信用和委托代理关系、信息不对称、交易成本等因素导致市场的系统风险，不完美。
又有多少学者对这些制度进行研究，得出早就知道的结果？
坚持市场化导向，改革新股发行制度，强化各主体责任，完善价格形成和股票承销机制。
征询问题主要集中在询价制度、询价的有效性、新股分配机制、存量股份的发行以及审核制度等几个方面。
硕士就业难催出考博热
分析其中原因，高校招生人士认为，首先是硕士应届毕业生逐年增多。其次，博士生导师增加。再者，就业形势影响。“对于学生个人而言，可能会更多考虑就业方面的影响。”该人士坦言，从这两年的趋势来看，研究生面临的就业压力同样在逐年增大，而今年受金融危机影响，就业形势更加严峻，不少学生都选择了继续求学，避开危机影响。
扩招是行政命令，不是根据需求来的，产生的后果是痛苦的。
2009年1月12日星期一
建立类似FRB的财政政策决策机构
当然很多人说过这个问题。但是，我想说说为什么需要构建这么一个机构。现在，美国反对大规模政府开支的经济学家的一个理由是不知道这些钱会花到哪去，是否花得有效，及时。
按说平时政府部门，如教育、医疗、建筑、卫生、科学等部门都会有建设预算和可以上马的工程，到危机时，需要政府投资时立马可以用的上。但是，这些行政部门平时做得不够，而且没有一个协调这些计划的部门，所以一个财政政策参考和决策机构是必要的。可以减少其它部门的人员和开支。
2009年1月11日星期日
转非抄袭
 1、 2、 3、 4、 5、 6、 7、 8、 9、 10、 11、 12、 13、 14、 15、 16、 17、 18、 19、 20、 21、 22、 23、 24、 25、 26、 |
英文文献免费迅速下载法
进入http://www.sciencedirect.com，在“Quick
Search”栏输入你欲检索的关键词，例如，你检索小檗碱，输入berberine，点按纽“go”，结果是255 Articles
Found；
步骤二：
找到你需要的文献，在其全文链接的的“PDF(***K)”处点右键，看“属性”，将其地址复制到Word中并回车。如文献Synthesis
and DNA-binding affinities of monomodified berberines 的地址是PDF (352
K)。 循环步骤一、二将你所有欲查的文献的全文地址全部粘贴到Word中并最后另存为Web文件。
步骤三：
注意，其他文章也可如法“目标另存为”，但你会发现速度很慢，怎么办？没关系，在第一篇文章存盘完毕后，请取消代理，再点“目标另存为”，呵呵，是不是速度很快了？
附加说明：
1 查文献、下文献时为什么不一直使用代理？
这是因为下第一篇文章时SD已记忆你的cookies，但是，时间一长，cookies将失效。
2009年1月10日星期六
Fear, Greed, and Crisis Management: A Neuroscientific Perspective
Like hurricanes, financial crises are a force of nature that cannot be legislated away, but we can greatly reduce the damage they do with proper preparation.
Because the most potent form of fear is fear of the unknown, the most effective way to combat the current crisis is with transparency and education. In the short run,……
In the long run, more transparency into the “shadow banking” system; more education for investors, policymakers, and business leaders; and more behaviorally oriented regulation will allow us to weather any type of financial crisis.……
不是答案不好，而是问题不好
•1998年，财政部发布《债务重组》准则，允许债务人因债务重组发生的债务重组收益可以计入利润表（进营业外收入）。但是，2001年1月1日，准则进行了修订，规定债务重组收益只能进资本公积，不进利润表。2006年2月，在新的CAS12-债务重组准则中，考虑到国际趋同要求，规定债务重组收益可以进利润表。请设计一个方案，检验债务重组准则的变化是否影响以及如何影响上市公司通过债务重组进行盈余管理的行为？
怎么设计方案呢？真的很难呀。difference-in-difference的思路都不得行。有些时候，我在想，是不是这个问题就不好，“债务重组准则的变化是否影响”，这个问题有意义吗啊？
收税还是行政关闭
拿一个例子说。减少香烟消费量。
提高烟草税是经济学家的建议，而行政关闭烟草企业是政治学家的建议。哪种更有效？经济学家看不起非价格手段，而政治学家说，其实你收税也是行政手段，如果收税执行不好，征收有漏洞，还不是一样起不到效果。政治学家还说，我也有价格手段，就是行政规定烟的价格一定卖在某某价格以上
这些人都是好心做了坏事。关闭烟草企业，只要有需求你是关不掉的，地下烟草会横行；行政规定烟的价格，傻逼才会听你的；提高烟草税，税收征管没有问题才奇怪。但是这三个差劲的建议中，还是提高烟草税最好。
除了这三个就没有其它的吗？交换和替代是基本思路。交换拿什么去换戒烟；替代，与其百般劝阻，不如指出另外的道。但是，你还是不能强迫别人去戒烟的，强迫的结局是扭曲的后果。
无聊，郁闷的时候，别人不抽烟干什么呢？形成习惯后更要抽了。
排污也是如此。
取消人大，党内建民主，提高政协反制作用
2007年党内统计的数据，全国的党员数已达到7415.3万人。除以总人口算出的比例已经很高了，这么多人还不够代表中国人民吗？
全国人大的最主要的作用就是立法，这项任务交给党员代表大会去做嘛。前提是，党内建立民主，丰富党员工作。
政协的反制作用现在看来很低了。我们完全可以把政协完全交给党外人士，给政协权利反制，新闻自由。
美国的参众两院由不同州的不同党混合组成，而中国可以建成是一院由我党组成，一院由他党组成。这个违反在我党领导下的政治协商的原则吗，不违反，即使违反了，也是因为时代变了。
每年全国人大开会得花多少钱呀！
2009年1月9日星期五
他们说，市场经济可以留下好企业
什么是好企业，都不好说。但是有一种情况可以检查出来，就是经济危机后谁还留下来的企业。危机越大，留下来的就越好。
但是，企业活下来对于经济危机时的战略真的是最优的吗？我想未必，只有核心竞争力留下来才是最优的吧
2009年1月8日星期四
Satyam Chief Admits Huge Accounting Fraud
The size and scope of the fraud raises questions about regulatory oversight in India and beyond. In addition to India, Satyam has been listed on the New York Stock Exchangesince 2001, and on Euronext since January of 2008. The company has been audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers since its listing on the New York Stock exchange.
2009年1月7日星期三
Honesty Reigns on Boxing Day
Tom Algie, who runs the Practically Everything hardware store in Settle, returned to work at the end of the day to find an honesty box full of money.
“It was stuffed with notes and coins,” said Mr Algie. “There was £187 in it and two euros, which is pretty good.”
Grateful shoppers had also left notes thanking him for trusting them.
Why You’ll Love Paying for Roads That Used to Be Free
But is this fair? Haven’t we already paid for these roads with our tax dollars? Won’t the wealthy buy their way out of congestion, while the rest of us are stuck? And won’t conditions in the free lanes deteriorate as they are packed with all the drivers who have fled the toll lanes?
在我们国家争论怎样解决几百万的收费站（toll）的工作人员时，美国却和我们走相反的路，具有借鉴意义！
但是收费站搁在中国是另一种情况，人民普遍不相信政府和资本家是现实。收费人民觉得是剥削，虽然可以改善路况。但是，从经济学角度来看得话，在现有基础上，改变收费站的工作性质，即为了改变路况，而不是仅仅是收费，在经济学上来说是有意义的，是一个不错的选择，虽然这种选择有副作用，哪种经济政策没有副作用呢？
当然博弈论学得好的人可能会提出其它的方案解决congestion的问题，但是都因为难以实施而丢脸。
Can Businesses Do Well and Do Good?
Economix探讨的这个问题很早就谈过了，Gary becker先生也发表过看法。现在我的理解是，在不同制度性，人表现出不同的一面，自私，自利，这些还分为制度性自私和自利，道德性自私和自利，在某些制度下，人会表现为自私，其它制度却为自利。比如，在交换制度下，会表现为自利，在共同承担风险下，会表现自私。但二者都是博弈均衡。
但是，有些人确实能够在短期内保持道德性自私和自利，就是说培养自私的环境下，有些人还会表现为自利。
Apple strips iTunes of digital rights management
Want to Copy iTunes Music? Go Ahead, Apple Says
“In return, Apple, whose dominance in online music sales gives it powerful leverage, agreed to a longstanding demand of the music labels and said it would move away from its insistence on pricing all individual song downloads on iTunes at 99 cents.
Instead, the majority of songs will drop to 69 cents beginning in April, while the biggest hits and newest songs will go for $1.29. Others that are moderately popular will remain at 99 cents.”
it's time to the market discipline!
中国和三大铁矿石供应商的谈判机制
谈判的基准价格为离岸价（即不包括运输费用），供需双方任意一对如果率先达成矿价协议，即成为首发价格，其他各方均无条件接受。
“这一价格机制，在2007年的谈判中就遭到了挑战。当年谈判进行至2008年2月，宝钢集团已与淡水河谷就铁矿石价格达成一致。然而，力拓和必和必拓两家公司一改惯例，以其与亚洲距离近、海运费便宜，从而铁矿石到岸价格便宜为由，拒绝接受首发价格。此后，宝钢与两家澳洲矿业公司又另外达成了协议，涨幅高于宝钢与淡水河谷达成的价格。”可见这种机制是不稳定的，不是一个纳什均衡。
此前，有媒体报道，必和必拓表示可以从2009年1月1日起下调铁矿石售价，但交换条件是中国钢铁企业接受新的定价机制，将矿石价格指数化。
“中国肯定不会接受指数定价。”单尚华表示，指数定价不利于安排生产和销售，相当于钢厂向铁矿商承诺了长期采购数量，但是没有议价能力
“中国肯定不会接受指数定价。”单尚华表示，指数定价不利于安排生产和销售，相当于钢厂向铁矿商承诺了长期采购数量，但是没有议价能力
为什么毛泽东不喜欢知识分子
不管是在北大图书馆，还是在延安，抑或是更早以前的湖南师范，更有甚者是在毛建国后，他都没瞧得起过知识分子，搁到现在，也瞧不起我们这些学经济管理的，虽说这门学科已是显学。为什么？
1957年的百花齐放运动和10年的文化大革命主要对象就是知识分子吧。毛不喜欢知识分子的一个原因恐怕是因为，知识分析喜欢谈民主，从五四运动起自由和民主至少在知识分子中已经形成了共识，所以即使是毛当家后知识分子还是嚷嚷民主，也就是分毛的权，毛可能会认为知识分子不要脸。百花齐放运动我看是对知识分子的调戏，带着枷锁的自由和民主不是自由和民主。
7 habits of highly effective freshmen in Capital Hill25 people you should know on the HillEvery place has its go-to people, the ones who understand how things work and how to get things done. |
2009年1月5日星期一
今天去买票
首先，我声明，我喜欢用脚投票，不喜欢用手或嘴投票。售票员的服务态度实在太差了，和其它的垄断行业一样，如行政，电力等等。飞机就不一样，多呗。垄断害的不仅是一代，好几代，老子在铁路干，儿子还在铁路干，干得是越来越不高兴，越来越服务态度差。
兜售票，黑票都是很正常的事情了，一个是火车内部员工拿出来，或者是其它人排队去买的。倒票的钱完全可以由铁路局把少的票提价了，现在这个提价被部分人弄去了，是铁道部这个会计主体的损失。需求多，价格高，这个市场铁律……
回来的时候我们讨论了铁路很早就应该上网上订票系统了，但是大家异口同声的说，那那些售票员放哪去，就像收费站的人员一样。政府干预市场，肯定会犯错误，犯了一个错误，以后会用更多的错误来修正这个原先的错误，就像你撒谎，以后要用一个又一个的慌来原这个慌。这也叫做是，存量意义上的市场分配资源不合理。
但是，我还是买到卧铺了，上铺，中铺比上铺贵12元，下铺不知道。
2009年1月4日星期日
我喜欢坐公交看这个经济世界
一有机会，我就会去做公交，喜欢挑靠窗的位置。今天早上从中门坐车去火车站，一路看到了什么？看到了节后上班的人挤公交，看到漂亮的大厦过后是肮脏的小巷，看到雄伟政府大楼旁边是破烂矮屋，看到西装革履的上层人物和衣衫褴褛的底层群众。
我一直气氛那些所谓的读书人的“发展是硬道理观”，回避问题，简直是NBA！发展经济，一定要保护私有产权，一定要限制zf的力量，学别人的东西要学精华，民主政治有什么不好呢？理由是不好改，废话，人活着就要有奔头，不好做就不做，什么人啊。
中国的发展，是zf强制拥有资源，官员拉上几个资本家共享天下。不是ypbx是什么？核心不改，修修补补民生有啥用。做人要有良心，都是中国人，相煎何太急？！
2009年1月3日星期六
乾隆平定准葛尔、和珅、纪晓岚
大清朝，或者2000多年的封建社会的中国，没有哪个王朝能够完全理清和少数民族的关系，就连中华人民共和国也一样，西藏、新疆、台湾、内蒙、东三省、云贵西……
和珅相当于乾隆的第二财政，为他儿子嘉庆留了个金库。
纪晓岚在《铁》里是忠臣，和珅是奸臣，但不是叛臣，乾隆没有天真地以为摆平忠奸就能万古流传，清就是在他手上衰的。和珅带坏了样子，和珅杀得了，但是样子就杀不了了。
雍正管得严，乾隆看到的是张弛有度，没看到从制度上改变，其实再怎么改变都没用，只要封建制度没变，乾隆或许比大家都聪明，看到了这一点，就得过且过，快活的过了，他不可能把封建制度都给废了。
八国联军侵华、金入北宋、美国入中东
1900年，八国联军侵华，据史记，这些人在中国烧杀抢劫，无恶不作，人民苦不堪言。人民的苦在外侵来之前就很深了。
而在这800多年前，女真金入宋，把皇帝由汴京赶到临安，变戏法似的把北宋变成南宋。
又在这800多年后，美国入中东，在中东战略布局。美国的文明似乎无法打败消灭阿拉伯文明的遗留。
这些看似不相干的事件其实具有相通。牛顿的经典物理学给世人一个工具很好的认识了宏观世界；之后的100年，爱因斯坦的相对论让一些人有了工具认识了微观世界，虽然还不全面。而我们看这个社会的时候，没有一种工具是完美的。如果有一种工具，能够帮我们看清社会发展，预测社会发展。
八国联军侵华和美国战略性入中东是一个理，女真金入宋，是为了抢北宋的文明。一个是为了保护和增长文明，一个是为了抢文明，这个社会就是这么一个理，人的本性在经历了比较后就会显示出来，要么是恶，要么是善。
2009年1月2日星期五
也谈人治和法治
治国，治家，治理企业，按理说不能让上帝来治理，也不能让机器来治理，都是人治理，治理的对象也是人，所以，人治和法治的基础都是人治理人。
大家试想自己家里，父亲是怎么治家的！有的一家之主没有主见，但是又不和大伙商量，误事；有的家长什么都是自己说了算，不考虑别人的感受；这两种都是人治的形式。又有的家长在家庭里面立了很多规矩，做什么决策都按规矩来，这就是普遍大家说的法治，其实这不是法治！因为这里面有几个问题，一个是做决策的人还是一个人，没有变换机制；二个是这个规矩还是这一个人制定出来的，家里其它人同不同意都无所谓；三个是家里其它人即使同意了这个规则，但是家长还可能不按规则形式。
所以，一个法治的人治理人的必要条件有：家长和其它人是委托代理关系；代理方有一种变换机制；法律是人民自己制定的；具有一股力量监督代理方的执行情况；所以说，法治其实不是死的，而是自由和民主的具体表现形式之一 。
商鞅在公元前500多年在秦国的法治尝试是一种快乐，也是一种痛苦。快乐的是，法治的作用和强大和持久的，这体现在商鞅的部分法治都能够给秦国带来称霸的实力；而也正是这个部分法治，导致了秦朝的短命。法治是表，而自由和民主是体，而秦国只有表。
The Evil Behind the Smiles
Published: December 31, 2008
"a winner of two Pulitzer Prizes. He has written an op-ed column for The New York Times since November 2001 and is widely known for bringing to light human rights abuses in Asia and Africa. He has lived on four continents, reported on six, and traveled to 140 countries and all 50 states. According to his blog, during his travels he has had "unpleasant experiences with malaria, wars, an Indonesian mob carrying heads on pikes, and an African airplane crash".[1]His books include China Wakes: The Struggle for the Soul of a Rising Power (1994), Thunder from the East: Portrait of a Rising Asia (2000)—both co-authored with his wife Sheryl WuDunn, and The Japanese Economy at the Millennium: Correspondents' Insightful Views (1999)."
2009年1月1日星期四
Emerging economists International bright young things
Dec 30th 2008
From The Economist print edition
The next generation of economists do their best work somewhere between the field clinic and the dissection room
Guaranteed: Drop in Housing Prices Leads 2009 Economic Predictions
chicago recent report
Marking the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan rebellion and the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown, China will face “the year of unrest” in 2009, he said. “Some of the unrest will be driven by those important anniversaries,” Zonis said. “But most of the strikes, riots, and demonstrations will be driven by economic unrest driven by rising unemployment, property seizures, and economic hardship.”
In the United States, the “soft power” the Bush administration has been so unsuccessful at exercising will be vastly more effective under President-elect Barack Obama, a former University of Chicago Law School instructor, Zonis said. “Chicago will succeed in winning the 2016 Olympic bid because of this massive increase in the esteem in which the United States is held for having elected Barack Obama,” he said.
The Latest on Homicide Rates
By STEVEN D. LEVITT
\different guys interprete the same data resource in differrent ways/
暖春2009
我不后悔把我08年最后的几个小时留给《暖春》。
一直想找一个安静的晚上去欣赏这部片子。晚上我去吃了小炒，喝了小酒，听了小曲，然后就去欣赏《暖春》，之前别人的影评是“感动”，看过以后，是“非常感动”，我都成“泪人”了，电影看完后，一卷10厘米直径的筒纸变成了8厘米，而对于整部电影的心情已经不是“欣赏”，而是“同情”和“批评”，同情剧中人，也同情自己，自己怎么就傻到这层地步了，批评的是自己，自我批评自己的“俗”。
自从学了经济学，我更俗了。我更相信资本主义，更相信私有化能够增加社会财富，市场化能够分配好资源，即使现在我有点后悔，但是我还是无法认同马哲里的部分内容，我仍然相信私有化和市场对财富的创造和分配都是最好的制度。但是，我们可以做的更多，因为不这么多，很多我们未曾意识到的机会成本很大。
就拿电影来说，电影中贫穷的人很艰苦，同时生产力也低；而城里人生产力高，工业文明；需求理论说我们需要多消费，这样来的话经济循环就能够持续下去，这个说法是没有考虑机会成本的。如果我们可以把买很贵的衣服的钱给山村的小孩，激励他们去学习，增加生产力和财富，那么对于整个社会来说是好的。
现在的问题有三个，一个是怎样把钱完整得转移到真正需要钱的人手里；二个是怎样使这些钱真正激励山城人奋斗，提高生产力；三个是怎样使这些钱一部分拿来投资，一部分消费。有人说因为农村人钱的存量少，所以城里人的边际需求比山村人低很多，这是胡说，农场人的边际消费是很少的，喜欢存钱！但是钱多了到了一定程度后，如果其它的人也被引导消费了，边际消费还是会提高的，但是绝对高不过城市，因为农村人天生的一种不公平对待，一种不安全感，而且没有养老保险和医疗保险。现在，很少的家庭会把大部分的钱花在孩子的教育上！我想经济危机了，返乡的农民可能会增加入学孩子的比例！
一个是怎样把钱完整得转移到真正需要钱的人手里；二个是怎样使这些钱真正激励山城人奋斗，提高生产力；三个是怎样使这些钱一部分拿来投资，一部分消费。这三个问题把很多专家都吓退了。确实，不是出于私人自愿的，或多或少会出现漏洞，比如转移的钱被过手者侵吞一部分，比如钱到了不缺钱的手里，比如钱到了手里，但是这些人只是把它存了起来，没有拿去教育投资，没有拿去投资农业，也没拿去消费；因为这些原因，因为农民长期以来形成的经济习惯，导致问题很棘手，但是我们知道这种结果的长期原因就是缺少教育。所以，对这种结果的短期解决方式是，强制性的制度安排；而长期的解决方式是教育，强制性的教育制度安排，当然不仅仅是一个教育强制，因为如果只有一个的话会产生畸形结果，所以这种强制，既是一种激励也是一种惩罚，往细里说，企业绝对不能收留未成年，抓到严惩！这是切断其去处；再者对于上学的小孩进行补助，条件补助；第三对于农村学校进行投资；四个对于成年人进行劳动和素质培训；五个改变农民的观念，给他们文化、自由、民主，把孩子带大了就要放手了。试点，然后推广的方式不知道好不好。
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